Gas and Italia as a Mediterranean hub thanks to the reversal of North-South flows

Over the past four years, Europe’s energy landscape has seen its magnetic poles reversed. Whilst for decades the geopolitics of gas followed a linear and seemingly immutable path – from east to west, from the depths of Siberia to the industrial heartlands of Germany and the Po Valley – the situation is now completely different. The Russia-Ukraine war has led the European Union to a definitive break with Moscow, and the Mediterranean can now, with even greater justification, emerge as the new centre of gravity for the continent’s energy supplies. Against this backdrop, Italia – geographically oriented towards North Africa – no longer faces merely a national security challenge, but is presented with an unprecedented economic and strategic opportunity: to become the true ‘gateway’ and the transit hub for gas and green energy sources to Central Europe, capitalising on the physical reversal of flows along the North-South axis.

The transformation from a country that is primarily a consumer of energy – which, in Europe, still has the highest proportion of electricity generated by combined-cycle gas power stations (around 40 per cent, rising to 50 per cent in winter) – into an export hub is not merely an aspiration, but can become a goal underpinned by a precise engineering and infrastructure framework. The redesign of the national network, managed by Snam, has the strategic objective of eliminating internal bottlenecks to facilitate the northward flow of gas from the South. To achieve this, the completion of the first phase of the “Adriatic Line” – the new Apennine corridor also funded by the PNRR – is essential. On the cross-border logistics front, the figures from Snam’s ten-year plan speak for themselves: the reverse-flow operations at the Malborghetto plant have already made it possible to increase export capacity to Austria via the Tarvisio interconnection point, but with the commissioning of the new electric compression units, the Tarvisio hub will become comparable to Passo Gries. This will consolidate a simultaneous export capacity from Northern Italia to Central European markets of up to a potential 14–15 billion cubic metres per year, establishing a genuine continental distribution network fed by Mediterranean routes. By 2025, exports – particularly to Austria – will have increased fivefold, reaching 2 billion cubic metres.

Underpinning this export capacity is the massive expansion of southern supply routes. Italia has diversified its import channels by securing the Algerian corridor, with the TransMed pipeline having transported over 20 billion cubic metres of gas to Mazara del Vallo in 2025, alongside the stabilising role provided by the TAP in Puglia (around 10 billion cubic metres) and the continued operation of the Libyan route via the GreenStream. At the same time, the national regasification infrastructure has achieved significant logistical flexibility. Snam has strengthened its presence by increasing its stake in Adriatic LNG (Cavarzere) to 30 per cent, and the commissioning of the floating FSRU units at Piombino and Ravenna has brought the country’s total regasification capacity to 28 billion cubic metres per annum. This is a symbolic yet substantial figure: it is exactly equivalent to the volumes of gas that Italia imported from Russia before the war, ensuring a structural surplus over domestic demand that can be channelled specifically to the European market. This so-called “redundancy”, is increasingly important in a period such as the present, in which there is no shortage of geopolitical shocks, not least that triggered by the US-Iran conflict.

Italia therefore finds itself in a position of exceptional geographical and infrastructural advantage, although the battle for control of European energy flows hinges on the speed with which infrastructure projects are completed and on the strength of diplomatic relations. If the Snam network can ensure smooth transit logistics at competitive costs, and if the Mattei Plan consolidates the industrial partnership with the southern shore of the Mediterranean, Italia will play an increasingly important role in European energy security. This objective is drawing ever closer, thanks in part to the infrastructure investments made in recent years, which have also enabled the diversification of supplies (now from more than ten countries), thereby reducing vulnerability to price volatility. “Never before have we been so close to becoming a true hub,” emphasised Proxigas chairman Pier Lorenzo Dell’Orco, noting that gas exports from Italia have increased fivefold, reaching 2 billion cubic metres this year, mainly to Austria. “However, there is still a long way to go: we must continue to invest in infrastructure, regasification terminals, the pipeline network and storage facilities, to support the liquidity of our market and develop our export potential,” he concluded.