GDP: Istat raises estimates to +0.3% in Q1, +0.8% year-on-year
The estimate of the quarterly economic accounts revises upwards by one decimal place the cyclical and trend changes in GDP released in the preliminary estimate at the end of April, as well as that of the change in the 2026
Istat took a snapshot of the economic accounts for the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, the gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in chain-linked values with reference year 2020, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, grew by 0.3 per cent compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8 per cent compared to the first quarter of 2025.
The acquisition of more complete information on the quarter led to an upward revision of the preliminary GDP estimate released on 30 April 2026 (+0.2% cyclical growth, +0.7% trend growth). The acquired change for 2026 is 0.6%.
The first quarter of 2026 had one fewer working day than the previous quarter and the same number of working days as the first quarter of 2025.
Compared to the previous quarter, all the main components of domestic demand were on the rise, with growth of 0.4% in domestic final consumption and 0.7% in gross fixed capital formation. Imports decreased by 0.7% while exports increased by 2.2%.
National demand net of inventories contributed positively by 0.4 percentage points to the cyclical growth of GDP: +0.3 percentage points to the final consumption of households and Private Social Institutions ISP and +0.1 to gross fixed capital formation, while the contribution of expenditure by Public Administrations (PA) was nil. By contrast, the change in inventories contributed -1.1 percentage points to the change in GDP, which was not entirely offset by the positive contribution of net foreign demand, which amounted to +0.9 percentage points.
