US GDP, Goldman Sachs halves Q4 estimates. Recession risk grows
The company points to 'a sharp tightening of financial conditions, a boycott of foreign consumers and a continued increase in political uncertainty'.
1' min read
1' min read
Goldman Sachs economists lowered the US growth outlook for Q4 2025 to 0.5 per cent from 1 per cent and now see a 45 per cent probability of recession in the coming year, from the previous 35 per cent.
The company points to "a sharp tightening of financial conditions, a boycott of foreign consumers and a continued increase in political uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending more than we had previously assumed" after President Trump's announcement of tariffs last week.
The 45% probability of a recession assumes that Trump will postpone at least part of the planned tariffs that are scheduled to take effect on 9 April. If he does not, the analysts continue, 'we expect to change our forecast to a recession'.
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