Generali, UniCredit rises again: market target 10%

UniCredit surging on Generali. From 6.68% previously held, it has risen to 8.72% and in a few hours it would have rounded up further, exceeding, according to press rumours, 9% with the market that, between the buy back effect (Trieste is planning a 500 million share buy back plan with subsequent cancellation of the securities) and possible new purchases, sees the institution projected towards 10%, a threshold beyond which it would be necessary to ask for the authorisation of Ivass.

From Piazza Gae Aulenti comes a dry no comment, but financial circles make it clear that the hypothesis of the institute's rise in Trieste's capital would respond to precise logics. On the one hand to protect the investment from the financial point of view and on the other, and this would be the main reason, on the business front. For some time now, talks have been underway between the bank's CEO, Andrea Orcel, and that of Trieste, Philippe Donnet, to expand the collaboration in Eastern countries signed in 2017 and for now limited to the distribution of specific products and therefore for a very limited turnover. At the basis of the strengthening, therefore, there would be the intention to forge a broader partnership in those areas where Trieste is particularly strong, perhaps even contemplating an agreement in asset management, where Generali, after having shelved the attempted agreement with Natixis, is still on the hunt for new growth options. What will happen next is still to be defined, not least because until the Commerzbank game is closed, it is difficult for UniCredit to estimate rounded spending budgets that can chart development paths in Italia or other countries.

If this in any case is the industrial rationale, one cannot overlook the obvious effects on the shareholding structure in Trieste and therefore on the contestability of the company. The rise of UniCredit is taking place in a very particular phase of Generali with the shareholding structure being called into question by a series of variables that cannot be assessed at the moment. The shares in safe hands at the moment are 6.26% of the Caltagirone Group, which, however, has several times in the past come close to 10% at the meetings of the Leone, 4.87% of the Benetton family, and 1.9% of Fondazione Crt. Otherwise, the fate of the 13.2% in Mediobanca's portfolio and the 10% belonging to Delfin is still to be written. Even if, in the specific case of Piazzetta Cuccia, it seems unlikely that the stake can be demobilised or put at the service of other transactions in the near future. And for a very simple reason: in order for those securities to actually enter Mps' hands, the integration with Mediobanca must first be completed, a step that will take at least a year if not a year and a half. It is a different matter for the package in the hands of the Del Vecchio family's holding company. The future of those shares is inextricably bound up with the agreement that Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio is working on to take over the stakes in Delfin held by his brothers Luca and Paola. An agreement that, and tomorrow a new round of the meeting will be played out in this perspective, if it goes through, could lead to a divestment of financial assets to support part of the upstream reorganisation of the chain of control. And who could take over that 10%? Among the banks potentially financing Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio is UniCredit, which, committed as mentioned on the Commerzbank front, could however be faced with a choice: continue the German campaign or tighten its grip on the insurance company.

In this scenario, the possibility of a new player popping up cannot be ruled out: Intesa Sanpaolo, although it has repeatedly called itself out of potential extraordinary transactions. The possibility is that it will eventually decide to enter the game and therefore, if it wants to take a position along the chain leading to Trieste, the most plausible option could be to go through Mps. For which, moreover, the market is already hypothesising an axis with Banco Bpm. In short, being invested in Monte and Generali, at this stage, is a guarantee of being able to participate from a privileged seat in the new wave of risiko that will involve the Italia banking system. At the moment, who is entrenched on both fronts is Caltagirone. Delfin would be too, but the future of the shareholdings in Trieste and Siena is currently under discussion.

What is certain is that Generali, thanks to all this, consolidates its leadership among the sector's biggies on the stock market rally front, on the strength of a capitalisation that is now one step away from 60 billion.