The conference

Geopolitical risk for businesses: Luiss relaunches its observatory to measure it

Focus on the need to understand the shifting balance of power in the international arena and its impact on economic systems

by Pietro Menzani

1 October 2026

Aggiungi Il Sole 24 Ore
ai preferiti su Google

Paolo Boccardelli, rettore Luiss (Imagoeconomica)

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

In an ever-changing global landscape, the Italian manufacturing sector faces increasingly complex challenges. Analysing the risks associated with shifts in the international balance of power has become essential and, from the choice of markets to that of supply chains, now constitutes a structural factor in corporate decision-making processes. It was precisely with the aim of learning how to interpret these changes that the idea for the event ‘Sistema Italia and Geopolitical Risk: Challenges and Opportunities’ was conceived, organised by the ‘Franco Fontana’ Strategic Change Research Centre at Luiss in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo. The event took place at the Luiss campus on Viale Pola in Rome.

New balances

At the start of the proceedings, Paolo Boccardelli, Rector of Luiss, emphasised the speed and depth of the transformations affecting the global geopolitical balance, impacting markets, technologies, energy and value chains, and ‘altering the interdependencies that characterise the global economy’.

According to Boccardelli, in order to meet these challenges, Italia must capitalise on its ‘ability to manage complexity by investing in human capital. From the digital transition to the demographic winter, the real challenge of strategic autonomy hinges on skills: it is by training and nurturing our talent that we will be able to ensure the resilience, economic security and competitiveness of the Italia economy’.

The Geopolitical Risk Observatory

In this historical period, therefore, the monitoring and qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk have become essential. This is the remit of Luiss’s Geopolitical Risk Observatory (GRO), established within the ‘Franco Fontana’ research centre to support businesses in understanding global geopolitical dynamics and their impact on economic systems. Indeed, as Giampiero Massolo, director of the GRO, explained, ‘we are not experiencing a temporary crisis, but a structural systemic change’. The world order that “for thirty years has guaranteed Italian businesses shared rules and open markets is crumbling” and for this reason “geopolitics can no longer be a mere backdrop, but must become a permanent area of expertise for businesses”, concluded Massolo.

In this context, a key tool is the GRO’s Geopolitical Risk Index, for which Carlo Gallo is responsible. Gallo explained that the index, which now covers 65 countries and is updated fortnightly, has been structured around three causal levels: ‘As well as considering the structural level – that is, the variables and characteristics of each country that change slowly over time – we also take into account the current state of the various countries and the predictive dimension, in which we assess the intentions and potential for action of geopolitical actors.’

Enzo Peruffo, Vice-Rector for Academic Affairs at Luiss and Director of the “Franco Fontana” Research Centre, also emphasised the need for companies to interpret risk and translate it into strategic decisions: ‘Geopolitics has become a structural factor in competitiveness and requires companies to analyse it more continuously, more deeply and, above all, in a way that is more closely integrated with decision-making processes.’

Skills and training

During the event, considerable attention was then devoted to the topic of skills. Elisa Zambito Marsala, Head of Education Ecosystem and Global Value Programmes at Intesa Sanpaolo, stated that ‘we are living in an era characterised by constant and rapid change, in which geopolitical balances are increasingly complex and interconnected, and in which conflicts, new alliances, trade tensions and shifts in the international landscape can have significant repercussions not only on the economy, but also on society and on the competitive capabilities of the countries and businesses involved’.

Understanding and anticipating geopolitical risks, therefore, according to Zambito, ‘becomes a key lever for tackling uncertainty and guiding the strategic decisions of organisations and businesses’. The work carried out by Look4ward – the observatory developed by Intesa Sanpaolo in collaboration with Luiss to monitor changes in the labour market and companies’ training needs – is precisely in line with this approach.

The perspective of businesses and banks

The event was also attended by Barbara Cimmino, Vice-President responsible for Internationalisation and Investment Attraction at Confindustria; Eugenio Santagata, Director-General for Military Ships at Fincantieri; Agostino Scornajenchi, CEO of Snam, and Marco Elio Rottigni, Director-General of the ABI.

During a round-table discussion designed to explore how geopolitical risk is influencing internationalisation strategies and investment decisions, Cimmino emphasised that, unlike in the past, it is no longer enough to ‘simply analyse the target market from an economic perspective’ in order to expand internationally; rather, businesses must be provided with all ‘the necessary elements to develop their business plans and be highly competitive’ in the markets. On the future challenges facing the Italian manufacturing sector, Cimmino observed that ‘trade continues to grow, but there is a shift towards the Asian region. This presents greater difficulties, both in terms of geographical distance and in terms of knowledge’.

Finally, Marco Elio Rottigni, Director-General of the ABI, explained that, in order to manage global changes, we need ‘a shared knowledge platform, bringing together professionals with different experiences and expertise, which does not shield us from risk but enables us to tackle it with greater awareness’.