Geopolitics and business: how managerial skills are changing in an era of global uncertainty

In recent years, international geopolitical tensions have spread with increasing intensity and complexity, involving an ever-growing number of countries and regions around the world. The global landscape is now characterised by a deeply interconnected system, in which political, economic and energy-related events have immediate and often simultaneous effects on business operations. Market volatility, disruptions to supply chains, the re-routing of trade, and an increasingly uncertain regulatory framework are concrete manifestations of a situation that is no longer merely episodic but is tending to become structural.

Against this backdrop, the way in which businesses approach internationalisation processes is changing radically. Expanding into new markets or managing global supply chains is no longer merely a question of efficiency or access to demand, but requires an advanced ability to interpret complex geopolitical contexts, assess systemic risks and anticipate potential disruptions. Business strategies are therefore undergoing a transformation, and with them the skills required of managers and professionals.

This has a direct consequence: in order to make these skills an integral part of organisations’ human capital, education – particularly university and management education – must also evolve. It is no longer simply a matter of updating content, but of rethinking approaches, models and tools to prepare professionals capable of operating effectively in a global context characterised by complexity and growing uncertainty.

In the new international landscape, the skill set required of managers is evolving significantly. The first major shift concerns the ability to analyse and interpret the geopolitical context: no longer a secondary consideration, but a structural component of the decision-making process. The ability to assess the impact of energy supply, tariffs, sanctions, political instability or technological tensions on supply chains, costs and markets has become essential. This is complemented by strategic foresight – that is, the ability to anticipate scenarios and translate weak signals into operational decisions. The evidence, however, reveals a significant gap: whilst awareness of geopolitical risks is widespread, many organisations struggle to translate this into coherent and timely decisions, highlighting a need for cognitive rather than merely informational capacity. At the same time, resilience and adaptability take on a central role, particularly in the most exposed functions – such as procurement and the supply chain – where the impact of global tensions is felt immediately, affecting operational continuity and cost structure. No less important are intercultural skills, which are crucial for managing international relations and negotiations, and the ability to integrate technological and geopolitical dimensions into business decisions. In this context, training designed to address complexity emerges as a genuine strategic lever: it enables organisations to improve the quality of decision-making processes, strengthen organisational resilience, integrate diverse skills and, ultimately, transform uncertainty into a competitive advantage.

Against this backdrop, the university system is also being called upon to rethink its models, content and teaching methods. The most advanced study programmes are gradually moving away from traditional approaches, based on the top-down transmission of knowledge, towards interdisciplinary, experiential and real-world-oriented approaches. A survey carried out by the Polytechnic University of Turin, involving managers and lecturers, revealed that, in this context, tools such as simulations of complex scenarios, scenario planning workshops, analyses of international business cases and peer-to-peer discussions, which are considered among the most effective teaching methods for developing the ability to interpret and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The aim is not merely to transfer technical skills, but to build ‘sensemaking’ capabilities – that is, the ability to interpret economic, political and technological phenomena in an integrated manner. At the same time, there is a growing need for even greater integration between universities and business: work placements, interdisciplinary project work and collaborations with industry partners help to align education more closely with the complexity of operational contexts. There is also a broadening of the scope of education in terms of content: the geopolitical dimension, once marginal, is now a fully-fledged part of management programmes, not as a separate subject area, but as a cross-cutting framework for understanding. This trend is reflected in the growing commitment of master’s programmes to realign their curricula with the new demands of the labour market, promoting continuous and integrated professional development throughout one’s career.