Germany: a nightmare run-up to the election for Merz and the CDU: trailing in Berlin and hanging in the balance in Mecklenburg

The crackdown on immigration, with the sharp fall in arrivals and asylum applications, has not altered the trend; indeed, it has probably not even been noticed by Germans, particularly those living deep within the bubble of Germany’s Islamisation.

Not even the economic recovery – which could see GDP grow by 1 per cent this year (barring any issues with Trump or the Hormuz crisis) – has made much of an impression on voters. The upturn is being driven by public spending on defence and infrastructure, whilst ordinary people are struggling with utility bills, petrol and, in Berlin in particular, exorbitant rents.

The stance Merz has adopted as an international leader on Ukraine and European defence, however, does not seem to have won over the electorate, who – at least in part – are instead rejecting the reform of military service, with the prospect of a return to compulsory conscription.

On the contrary, the clashes within the coalition with the SPD were certainly felt, and were reminiscent of the disputes within the previous majority, which collapsed prematurely. Merz’s gaffes have even gone viral, as he has gradually accused Germans of relying too heavily on social security benefits, working too little and taking too much sick leave. And then there were the social reforms – not draconian but at times convoluted, such as the requirement for a doctor’s certificate from the very first day of illness – and unpopular ones, such as the abolition of early retirement. Following the collapse in Saxony-Anhalt, the majority is now having second thoughts about these measures.

Things aren’t going much better for the government’s coalition partners. In national opinion polls, the SPD is languishing at a meagre 12–13 per cent. In Berlin, it is watching the race from a distance. The only ray of hope comes from Mecklenburg, where it has edged ahead of the AfD, standing at 37 per cent of voting intentions. The credit, however, goes entirely to the outgoing Minister-President, Manuela Schwesig, who, amongst other things, is challenging the pension cuts.

And so, with just two days to go before what has become a decisive moment, the Government has announced its most popular measures: a cut in fuel excise duties and a future cap on pump prices. The package approved on Friday is worth 2.5 billion. Who knows if it will win votes.