German companies no longer trust the US: direct investment plummets

Investment by German companies in the United States has plummeted: in the first six months of 2026, it fell by 65 per cent year-on-year and by almost 80 per cent compared with the first six months of 2024, when Donald Trump had not yet returned to the White House.

The figures have been compiled by the IW Institute in Cologne, based on data from the Bundesbank. Between January and June, German companies invested around 4.3 billion euros in the United States. In the first half of 2025, the figure was 12.3 billion, and in the first half of 2024 it was 21.3.

The figure for 2026 is a historically low one, as the study’s author, Samina Sultan, points out, and confirms a trend that began during Trump’s second term. Lower levels were recorded in the first half of 2022, as well as in 2020 and 2023, when figures were even negative. “This was, however, due to the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, an exceptional circumstance,” explains the economist.

In the five years leading up to the pandemic, German companies invested an average of 15.8 billion euros in the United States in the first half of the year, almost four times the level recorded in 2026.

The analysis by the IW institute confirms what has already been highlighted by other studies, such as a recent survey by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK). According to the survey published in April, only 41 per cent of companies with operations in the United States stated that they intended to increase their capital expenditure in the country, a historically low figure. The same survey, however, indicated that a growing number of German firms intend to invest outside Germany in search of lower production costs.