The Europeans in Germany

European elections: defeat for the Traffic Light Coalition, AfD and Extreme Left advance in Germany

Alternative für Deutschland, a far-right party that has never entered a federal or regional government so far, became the second largest party. The Social Democrats of the SPD recorded the worst vote in their history, 13.9%.

Il logo di Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) presso la sede elettorale a Berlino

4' min read

4' min read

These were the European elections with the highest turnout since the reunification of the two Germanies, with almost 65% of the nearly 65 million Germans eligible to vote going to the polls. And for the first time, the minimum age was 16. But this election round will go down in history for something else, for the defeat of the two main parties of the federal government and the victory of the two extreme right and extreme left parties.

The Social Democrats of the SPD, the strongest party in the ruling coalition, recorded the worst vote in their history, 13.9%, going below the historic low of 15.8% in the 2019 European elections. The Greens, the second largest party in the federal government, suffered the worst decline of all and dropped 8.6 per cent to 11.9 per cent: it is precisely the young and very young who have fled from green issues.

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AfD second party, BSW well over quorum, Liberals well

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), an extreme right-wing party that has never entered a federal or regional government so far, became the second largest party in Germany and first in East Germany, winning a record result at 15.9% despite the scandals that engulfed its leading candidates for the European elections on the eve of the vote.

The other party with extreme positions, but to the left, is Alliance Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Founded last January by breaking away from Die Linke, this new party led by its charismatic leader Sahra Wagenknecht debuted in these elections with 6.2%, going well above the 5% threshold in the German parliament. Satisfied with the vote were also the Liberals, the governing party of the semaphore coalition with the smallest percentage but with the key ministry of finance: the Fdp managed to stay above 5%, which was by no means a foregone conclusion in the predictions, but registering 5.2% it still suffered a 0.2% drop compared to the 2019 elections.

Finally, despite appearances as the first party in Germany, it did not go so well for the centre-right Union. Cdu-Csu rose slightly to 30% compared to 28.9% in the 2019 European elections (+1.1% all coming from Cdu). This is a modest result because it is not enough to dominate the political scene and at the moment would not be enough to form a new Grand Coalition government with the Social Democrats as in the days of Angela Merkel.

Sixteen-year-olds vote for the first time

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The populists of the extreme right and extreme left therefore won by a landslide, also thanks to the novelty of the vote of 16 and 17 year olds who were able to vote for the first time. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) became the second largest party in Germany and first in East Germany. But this ultra-right party is unlikely to become the needle of the scales of a federal government because at the moment all moderate parties are lined up in a common position: never in government with AfD.

The European elections were a vote of no confidence in the traffic light coalition, which took off in the midst of a pandemic and then grappled with the Russian war in Ukraine, the arms race, the energy crisis, soaring inflation and interest rates, and the reinstatement of the debt brake. German political commentators now expect a tightening of discussions in the already quarrelsome semaphore coalition, with the SPD and Greens putting more pressure on the liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner who is applying the constitutional debt brake in an extremely orthodox manner.

Personal defeat for Scholz

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Thus, the Spd and Die Grünen, the main parties in the federal government, did very badly. For Chancellor Olaf Scholz it was a personal defeat, which could cost him the role of candidate-chancellor in the 2025 federal elections. Adding together Spd, Greens and Fdp, the three coalition parties now account for just 31% of the vote compared to 52% in the 2021 federal elections and 41.7% in the 2019 European elections. The Social Democrats yesterday collected the worst vote in their history (13.9%): and there are already rumours that instead of Scholz the next chancellor candidate could be the current Defence Minister Boris Pistorious (or Labour Minister Hubertus Heil). The Greens, who in government made some mistakes in the distribution of costs for families and businesses and in the timing of the fight against climate change, recorded -8.6%, the worst drop among all parties. But it must be said that they dropped to 11.9% from their historic peak of 20.5% in the 2019 European elections.

The long wave of the European elections could even shake the leadership of Friedrich Merz in the CDU, because he has so far failed to decisively halt the rise of the AfD. And the Christian Democrats are also struggling to get above 30% in the polls. The big challenge for the centre-right, and indeed for all other parties, is just around the corner, it will come in the elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony in September. It will be tough for the moderates: it emerged yesterday that 85% of AfD voters do not consider this party, singled out for its positions too close to neo-Nazi ideology, to be extreme right-wing.

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  • Isabella Bufacchi

    Isabella Bufacchivicecaporedattore corrispondente dalla Germania

    Luogo: Francoforte, Germania

    Lingue parlate: inglese, francese, tedesco, spagnolo

    Argomenti: mercato dei capitali, ECB watcher, fixed income e debito, strumenti derivati, Germania

    Premi: Premio Ischia Internazionale di Giornalismo per l’analisi economica, Premio Q8 per giovani giornalisti economici

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