Global agricultural prices fell by 1.2 per cent in October, dragged down by falls in cereal prices

The benchmark index of world agricultural commodity prices fell by 1.2 per cent in October (to an average of 133.9 points), but remains 5.9 per cent higher than a year ago. This is according to the FAO’s monthly report published today. The general decline in most agricultural commodities more than offset the sharp rise in sugar and the slight increase in vegetable oils. Lower demand for imports contributed in particular to the monthly fall in prices for cereals, dairy products and meat. The report indicates that the average global agricultural price index has fallen by 16.4 per cent from the peak reached in March 2022.

The cereal price index fell by 4.5 per cent compared with September. Global wheat prices have fallen following four consecutive monthly rises, driven by a slowdown in international demand against a backdrop of improved production prospects, particularly in Argentina. Expectations of an easing of export restrictions in the Black Sea region have added downward pressure on prices, although ongoing disruptions to Black Sea logistics have limited the decline. International maize prices also fell after reaching a three-year high in September, held back by pressure from US harvests, expectations of abundant supplies from major South American exporting countries and renewed prospects of an easing of tensions in the Black Sea region. By contrast, the FAO rice price index rose by 1.6 per cent in October, driven by delays in the harvest in some exporting countries, uncertainties over adverse weather conditions and rising costs.

Vegetable oil prices rose slightly (+0.3 per cent compared with September), with higher prices for soya and sunflower oil more than offsetting the lower prices for rapeseed oil. Soya oil prices have risen to their highest levels since the end of 2022, driven by continued, robust demand from the biofuel sector and a seasonal decline in supplies from South America. Meanwhile, sunflower oil prices have rebounded from multi-month lows, with the abundant supply of the product for export being held back by restrictions in the Black Sea region.

Meat prices have fallen by an average of 1.2 per cent compared with September, whilst remaining slightly above last year’s level. Prices for pork, sheepmeat and beef have fallen, whilst poultry prices have remained broadly stable. The 1.1 per cent fall in dairy product prices reflects the decline in international prices for butter and cheese, due to abundant supplies and weak demand, which more than offset the latest increases in milk powder prices.

Finally, the sugar price index recorded its fourth consecutive rise (+6.6 per cent over one month, +28.8 per cent year-on-year), reaching its highest level since December 2024. The rise is mainly due to disruption caused by rain during the harvesting and processing of sugarcane in the main producing region of central and southern Brazil, as well as concerns over production prospects in India, the European Union and Thailand for the new 2026–27 season.