Global direct investment on the rise, driven by data centres

This is why the gradual concentration of capital flows in already developed countries cannot, on the whole, be regarded as good news. Indeed, the most advanced countries continue to be not only – as is obvious – the main source of these flows, but also the most popular destination for investors.

The impact of global uncertainty is, in any case, evident, both in qualitative terms and in concrete actions. When asked to identify the key factor guiding investment over the last three years, almost 80 per cent of survey respondents cited conflicts and geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, in terms of concrete actions, direct industrial policy interventions aimed at assessing the national security implications of operations are on the rise, with as many as 52 countries engaged in this activity – double the number compared with 2016. Similarly, industrial policy measures assessed as defensive have almost doubled, rising by 93 per cent to just under a thousand each year.

This is the result of the new – more uncertain and challenging – environment in which companies operate. At the same time, governments are placing greater emphasis than in the past on national security issues across a wider range of areas. These include key infrastructure (both physical and, now more than ever, digital), technologies and critical raw materials, which are crucial for the sectors with the greatest reach and fastest growth rates.

From a sectoral perspective, data centres by far dominate investor preferences, with their value set to rise by 235 billion between 2024 and 2025; this is the only sector to show growth apart from Oil & Gas (+38 billion) and Semiconductors (+13). Elsewhere, however, there are declines, as is the case, for example, in the renewables sector (-37 billion), a sector whose prospects have been severely hampered by the Trump administration’s policies.

It is interesting to note the gradual shift in investment towards sectors considered strategic at this stage, including infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence, robotics and critical raw materials, semiconductors and the energy transition. Announced investment in these areas is set to rise from 109 billion in 2020 to 576 in 2025, increasing from 16 per cent to 44 per cent of the total. Data centres account for the lion’s share of this.

The average size of projects is also growing: looking at greenfield projects with a unit value of over one billion dollars, their share of the total soared to 44 per cent in 2025 – double the figure for 2017. In absolute terms, there were 158 such projects nine years ago; this figure has now risen to 618.