Market

Global market in recovery, Europe in the lead

According to Knight Frank's Global House Price Index, eight of the ten markets with the biggest rises in the second quarter of 2025 are European

(AdobeStock)

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

After a slowdown in 2022-2023, the global market seems to be consolidating and Europe seems to be the region with the fastest growing prices, according to Knight Frank's Global House Price Index - the quarterly indicator used by the company to measure the development of residential prices in the housing market - for the second quarter of 2025

The ten countries with the strongest real estate price increases include no less than eight countries on the European continent. At the top, below Turkey, which dominates the nominal ranking, is North Macedonia, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9% (18.5% if calculated net of inflation), followed by Portugal (18.1% nominal increase - 15.4% real increase) and Bulgaria (15.5% nominal, 10.7% real increase).

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Continuing with double-digit increases were Croatia (13.1% - 9.6%), Slovakia (12.8% - 8.1%), Hungary (12.5% - 7.5%), Lithuania (11.3% - 7.4%) and Spain (10.4% - 8%). Robust growths also for the Netherlands (9.3% - 6%) and Ireland (8% - 6.1%).

Italy ranks 32nd, with a nominal average increase of 3.9% and a real average increase of 2.2% year-on-year.

"Global house price growth has stabilised in the wake of previous rate cuts, with Europe leading the way in this recovery phase," notes Liam Bailey, Global Head of Research at Knight Frank. "However, the balance of risks still remains tied to inflation and borrowing costs. A further slight easing of monetary policies would go a long way towards turning the current tentative momentum into a firmer recovery."

According to the report, around 87% of the world's markets show positive year-on-year changes, strengthening compared to the previous quarter. However, the overall picture remains uneven: the largest declines are recorded in Mainland China (-6.4% nominal, -6.4% real) and Hong Kong (-6.3%, -7.7%), where the crisis in the construction sector continues to weigh on residential values.

Canada (-1.8%, -3.7%) and Peru (-1.7%, -3.4%) are also among the declining countries. There are also decreases in Europe: Finland records -2.9% in real values, Austria -3.2%. The US and the UK show +1.9% and +2.1% respectively on an annual basis, but these turn into -0.7% and -1.4% net of inflation.

For the second half of 2025, Knight Frank forecasts a still positive but subdued development: the combination of gradual rate cuts, lower inflation and stable employment should support demand, although growth will remain uneven across countries and segments.

Markets with restrictive fiscal policies or high levels of household debt will continue to perform weaker, while Eastern European and Mediterranean countries remain the most dynamic.

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