'Global temperature off course, Paris Agreement at risk'

A skyrocketing global temperature that puts the Paris Agreement at risk, the US turnaround on climate and new opportunities that could open up for the EU in the field of satellite observations. Three challenges related to climate change and the tools to measure and combat it are set to animate the scientific and political debate in the coming months.

On the podium, the (sad) first place goes to 2024, followed by 2023. This was certified by data from C3S, the Copernicus climate change service, one of the six thematic services of the European satellite programme. While 2025 is predicted to be in third place, at least according to the information available so far. Last year was the hottest on record and for the first time the thermometer marked 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level (1850), exceeding the limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement. In reality, the International Climate Treaty provides for a level of true alarm only if the temperature should remain above that threshold in a 20-year average, but even in this case the situation does not appear very comforting: 'It is likely,' explains C3S director Carlo Buontempo, 'that 2023 and 2024 will be the hottest in the last 100,000 years, an unprecedented situation since man has appeared on this planet. And the 2024 record is destined not to remain an isolated case, even though so far in 2025 the thermometer has remained below that threshold. 'It is very plausible,' says Buontempo, 'that in one of the next three to five years the temperature will exceed it again. Not only that. "Based on our simulations," he adds, "if it continues to increase at this rate, it is reasonable to think that at the end of this decade the 20-year average will be above 1.5 degrees.

All geographical areas will have an impact of some kind, none is safe. "In Italy and in the context of the Mediterranean in general," emphasises the C3S director, "we see a series of criticalities that have also been highlighted in the latest Ipcc report: on the one hand the increase in drought and on the other increasingly intense rainfall," such as storm Elias in Greece in 2023, the floods in the Valencia region in 2024, or those in Emilia-Romagna. The rapid reduction of Alpine glaciers in our country is also something to consider. "To give an idea of the emergency,' he points out, 'just think that by now the unit of measurement we use is no longer metres but cubic kilometres.

Is it too late to reverse course? "We are always in time to change the trajectory. But,' he warns, 'the longer we delay mitigation by reducing emissions and adapting to the changing climate, the more we accept a higher level of risk'. The premises are not encouraging in view of Cop 30, the Conference of the Parties on Climate Change to be held in Belem, Brazil in November. Also worrying the international community is the Trump administration's new course on climate. The first act was the formalisation of the exit from the Paris Agreement with an executive order last February. Then came the drastic 25% reduction in funding for NASA's climate monitoring satellites and the Noaa, the climate forecasting service. 'Satellite data,' Buontempo explains, 'play an increasingly crucial role in climate science. Before 1979, when the satellite weather era began, we had almost no data on the southern hemisphere. The advent of satellites suddenly allowed us to have information on that part of the planet. It revolutionised the ability to understand the global climate. An ability that may now be losing a key piece.

'Climate,' the C3S director emphasises, 'is a global domain by definition that requires global coordination. The USA has always played an extremely important role in the provision of weather and climate information and we have very close cooperation with them'. On the other hand, notes the climatologist, 'as Copernicus, our aim is to continue to operate the service no matter what, and we do our best to be responsive to any changes. The European investment in the satellite sector is such that it gives us some peace of mind, even in this complex situation. However, it is inevitable that if a major player decides to take a step back, this will have a negative effect on the ability to study the climate. But even in the worst case scenario it will not be a tragedy'.