Scientific study

Global warming is accelerating faster than expected, partly due to natural factors

This is explained in the study ‘Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions’, due to an effect known as feedback

 Berit Kessler - stock.adobe.com

2' min read

2' min read


The effects of ongoing climate change are now widely recognised: rising temperatures, extreme weather events, melting glaciers and water crises. All these consequences are due to excessive emissions of polluting gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, produced by human activities.

However, there are also emissions released by nature itself: these are known as ‘warming-induced emissions’ (Wie), greenhouse gases produced by natural sources as a result of rising temperatures.

Loading...

This type of emission forms part of climate feedback loops, that is, the chain reactions in which an initial change in the climate triggers reactions in the planet’s natural processes. There are two types of reaction: positive, if they amplify global warming, and negative, if they have the opposite effect.

Illustrazione tratta dalla ricerca “Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions” che spiega gli effetti climatici retroattivi: 1. Le emissioni antropiche sono causa del riscaldamento globale; 2. L’aumento delle temperature causa fenomeni quali lo scioglimento del permafrost, gli incendi di boschi, il riscaldamento di zone umide e laghi; 3. Questi eventi emettono gas serra che alimentano a loro volta il riscaldamento globale

A group of researchers from the non-profit organisation Spark Climate Solutions has studied the phenomenon of WIE: their research, “Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions” (“The projected increase in global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions generated by global warming itself”) analysed the impact of naturally occurring greenhouse gas emissions on rising temperatures.

How feedback works

The researchers analysed three natural events caused by global warming: the thawing of permafrost, the permanently frozen ground; the intensification of forest fires; and the warming of lakes and wetlands, which fuels the process of anaerobic digestion, leading to the breakdown of organic matter. These events produce methane and carbon dioxide, which are released into the surrounding environment.

The study found that methane emissions from natural sources are directly proportional to global temperature: as the former increase, so does the latter.
As for carbon dioxide emissions, these have an impact of seven billion tonnes for every additional degree Celsius (°C) of global warming.

What are the consequences

From 20 per cent to 30 per cent: this is the range within which the research estimates the increase in global warming, according to the MAGICC climate model, as a result of emissions caused by human activity. By the end of the century, therefore, the global average temperature is expected to rise by between 0.2°C and 0.4°C.

Despite a degree of uncertainty in the calculations, due to climate sensitivity and the variability of natural sources, even the most conservative estimate shows that the amplification effect remains significant.

“This hidden multiplier is missing from the models that inform climate policy; this means that those models are underestimating the extent of future warming and overestimating how much carbon we can still emit,” explained Sam Abernethy, the lead scientist on the research.

Rob Jackson, one of his colleagues, described the study’s findings as a ‘wake-up call’ that must be heeded and taken into account in future environmental policies.

Copyright reserved ©

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter

Notizie e approfondimenti sugli avvenimenti politici, economici e finanziari.

Iscriviti