UN: Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years, but the trend can be reversed. Here’s what needs to be done

According to UNEP, the inevitability of exceeding this threshold must not, however, be accepted passively: we must both adapt to climate change and take action to mitigate the damage and bring global temperatures back below the risk threshold. However, returning to a rise of less than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels will require ‘unprecedented’ action. The aim is to limit the rise in temperatures as much as possible through a three-step approach.

Firstly, an immediate response phase is envisaged, which will take place once the threshold set by the Paris Agreement has been exceeded. During this phase, it will be necessary to make sharp cuts to emissions, including methane emissions, and to adopt measures to protect the most vulnerable people and ecosystems.

The second phase will be one of mitigation, coinciding with the peak in temperatures: the pace of decarbonisation will need to be stepped up to achieve ‘net-zero emissions’, when the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere are equal to those removed. In the meantime, we will also need to tackle and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

The final stage, on the other hand, is one of long-term resilience, in which temperatures will first stabilise and then fall. This stage involves achieving a state of equilibrium characterised by negative carbon dioxide emissions and adapting to those effects of rising temperatures that are irreversible.

The figures released by UNEP have raised alarm amongst major environmental organisations, foremost among them the WWF and Greenpeace. In a statement, the WWF warned that ‘any rise above 1.5 degrees must be as small and as short-lived as possible’. For this reason, the organisation “urges governments to put forward truly effective climate plans, to accelerate the reduction of emissions and to increase support for people and communities already suffering the effects of climate change. Adequate funding must also be allocated”.

According to the WWF, ‘the fact that we are close to exceeding the 1.5 °C limit must serve as a catalyst for action, because the longer the world remains above that threshold, the greater the risks will be for people, nature and economies. The 1.5 °C limit remains the legal, moral and scientific safety threshold for the world. Exceeding it, even for a short period, would demonstrate a failure to fulfil our commitments, not a reason to weaken the target. We must reduce emissions, not our ambition, and act more swiftly to bring global warming back below the limit.”

Greenpeace, on the other hand, has called on governments to speed up the transition and to ‘recognise the responsibilities of oil and gas companies. Introducing a tax on these industries’ profits is the first step towards ensuring a just and equitable transition’.