Bad in September: -0.3 month

Darkness on industry: revenues down 5.7%

Volumes also declined. Downhill in Italy and abroad

2' min read

2' min read

Exports fell, almost one point between January and September. And production was also bad, down 3.4% in the first nine months. A context in which selling more, in the absence of significant inflation, is impossible. As certified by the latest Istat data on manufacturing for September, which closes the circle of the month's analysis with the trend in revenues. Disappointing, with a decrease of 0.3% per month, 5.7% year-on-year.

An all-round reduction, which also involved volumes (-4.7% per year) and was reflected in both exports (-3.6%) and the domestic market (-6.8%).

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September in monthly figures represents the fifth consecutive period of economic decline for industry turnover. The index in value, net of seasonal factors, is at its lowest level since January 2022, while for volumes it is at its lowest level since February 2021.

A manufacturing slowdown fuelled by several critical elements, including the German slowdown and the difficulties of the car industry, a drop in demand for luxury goods impacting textiles-clothing, an internal impasse on Transition 5.0 bonuses that with few exceptions (see the case of Palm's pallets) is holding back investment in plant and machinery.

In detail: the Istat communiqué

 In September, industry turnover, net of seasonal factors, is estimated to have decreased cyclically by 0.3% in value and 0.1% in volume. There were declines on the domestic market (-0.9% in value and -0.6% in volume) and increases on the foreign market (+0.9% in value and +0.7% in volume). For the services sector, there was an increase of 0.5% in value and 0.7% in volume, with positive dynamics in both wholesale trade (+0.2% in value and +0.3% in volume) and other services (+0.9% in value and +1.0% in volume).

 The seasonally adjusted indexes of turnover in value referring to the main industry groupings recorded a cyclical increase in September for capital goods (+0.1%), consumer goods (+0.3%) and intermediate goods (+1.3%), while energy decreased (-12.5%).

 In the third quarter of 2024, in cyclical terms, industry turnover, net of seasonal factors, declined in both value (-1.3%) and volume (-1.8%). Over the same period, turnover in services decreased in value (-0.3%) and in volume (-0.9%).

 On a trend basis, in September 2024, industry turnover, adjusted for calendar effects, declined in both value (-5.7%) and volume (-4.7%), reflecting decreases of 6.8% on the domestic market (-6.2% in volume) and 3.6% on the foreign market (-1.7% in volume). There were 21 calendar working days as at September 2023.

 The calendar-adjusted indices of turnover in value for the main industry groupings show a marked decline for energy (-22.5%) and capital goods (-9.7%) and smaller declines for intermediate goods (-3.3%) and consumer goods (-0.6%).

 In services, there were trend decreases of 0.6% in value and 1.4% in volume. Substantial decreases were recorded in wholesale trade (-3.0% in value, -2.2% in volume) and a differentiated trend in other services with an increase of 2.0% in value and a decrease of 1.0% in volume.

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