Goldsmiths, exports down 15.2% in the first five months of 2025

A positive 2024 - closed with an increase in revenues of about 5% and exports at +41.4% - and a 2025 characterised by uncertainties with exports that, in the first five months of the year, marked a drop of 15.2% compared to the same period last year. It is a complex picture that emerges from the economic data on exports processed by the Confindustria Federorafi Study Centre and contained in a survey conducted by Area Studi Mediobanca on a large sample of companies in the Italian gold-silver-jewellery system (about 250 joint-stock companies with a turnover of more than five million, equal to 90% of the entire system).

When analysing the negative export trend - the decline of which became more pronounced in the second quarter of the year - a few, due clarifications must be made: in 2024, gold and jewellery exports had experienced an 'anomalous' increase driven by both the rising gold price and Turkey's equally anomalous performance. Accomplice to galloping inflation and certain quantities on the purchase of raw gold imposed by the government in Ankara, Turkish companies between the end of 2023 and 2024 made massive purchases of semi-finished products (chain, for example) to be then recast locally.

Although Turkey in the first five months of 2025 maintained an important slice of Italian gold exports by value (more than a quarter), following some countermeasures put in place by the government, exports fell by -42.2% compared to the period January-May 2024. Exports to the United States also fell during the period: -18.9%, with the market share of gold jewellery sales in this country dropping to 8.3% of the total. Fear of tariffs with Trump's Liberation Day (the day of the first announcement of tariffs, later renegotiated) on 2 April probably also had an impact. Exports to other markets, however, are showing positive trends: the Arab Emirates, China and Japan are among them.

The survey by Area Studi Mediobanca then probed 'the pulse' of companies in the sector on various topics. First and foremost, that of 2025 performance: the panel of companies is practically split between those (45%) that expect growth, with slightly more optimism in the Arezzo (52%) and Valenza (50%) districts, and those that, on the other hand, expect a drop (43%). The main concern of companies (77.8%) is geopolitical uncertainty. Added to this is the fear of the tightening of protectionist policies, reported by 61.9% of companies, and the intensification of price competition, which concerns 41.3% of companies. There is no shortage of fears about rising energy costs (33.3%) and difficulties in finding and retaining human resources and skills (30.2%).

Despite this, however, or perhaps because of this, most of them intend to expand their presence in new markets (61.5%), develop new products and services (60%) and strengthen investments in technology (44.6%). Seven out of 10 companies say they have a concrete commitment to responsible supply chain management, while more than two thirds show attention to the reduction of fossil fuels, the use of renewable energy, waste management and recycling.