Trump's tariffs

The scenarios

What may happen with the 15% US tariffs on EU products

The consumer organisation Altroconsumo has tried to understand, on the basis of what is known at the time of the understanding between the US and the EU at the moment, what the impact of the US tariffs might be on the pockets of Italian consumers, between more direct effects and macro-economic consequences

by Rome Editorial Staff

6 August 2025

4' min read

Key points

Prices of goods bought by consumers in Italy
... and those of US goods that are imported into Italy.
The indirect effect: the portfolio impact of the reaction of India and Brazil
The hypothesis of repercussions over time on the prices of Italian products
The cost of energy
The cost of medicines
Investments
Possible effects on the economy
Exports, GDP and labour

4' min read

It's close, very close. On Friday 8 August, the US tariffs announced in the 27 July US-EU agreement between Donald Trump and Ursula Von der Leyen will be triggered; the 15% tariffs on European products exported to the US are confirmed, with exceptions. There is no written document yet, however, and not many details are known, which will probably be discussed in the coming days. The consumer organisation Altroconsumo has tried to understand, on the basis of what is known at the time of the agreement, what the impact of the US tariffs might be on the pockets of Italian consumers, between more direct effects and macro-economic consequences.

Here is what emerged.

Prices of goods purchased by consumers in Italy

The tariffs decided by Donald Trump, explains the consumers' association, do not have a direct impact on the prices of the products we buy in Italy or Europe (although they could have repercussions, as we explain below): they are in fact tariffs that will be applied to European products (including Italian) sold in the United States and, therefore, American consumers could be the first to see the effects, with an increase in the prices of imported goods.

If, before, US tariffs on European exports were around 5% (on average, with differences between one product and another), this should now rise to 15% for certain sectors and products. To give an example: if before, for a certain European product worth EUR 100, a US importer paid EUR 5 at US customs, today he will pay EUR 15 for the same product. And this could push importers to raise their prices in the US to compensate for the extra cost; and, as a consequence, US retailers and traders - who buy from that importer - could also raise their final prices, with effects on the demand for European goods and thus on the export possibilities of our companies.

... and those of US goods being imported into Italy

If the US has increased tariffs, the EU - for its part - has not responded with further counter-duties on American goods that are imported into Europe; this means that the prices of products made in the US or made in Europe with American raw materials that we buy will not rise significantly.

These include: jeans, cosmetics, some foods (ketchup, cheese, nuts, cotton, potatoes, salmon, nuts, grapefruit, vanilla, wheat, tobacco, cocoa, chocolate, citrus juices), spirits (vodka, rum, whisky, bourbon), but also tractors, SUVs, and then consoles, video games, accessories such as bags and wallets, bicycle parts and children's toys.

The indirect effect: the portfolio impact of the reaction of India and Brazil

If US products will not increase in price due to direct tariffs, we cannot overlook the indirect effects that the 25-50% tariffs that the US has announced for other countries, such as India and Brazil, big exporters of raw materials, raw materials that, therefore, could become more expensive: as a chain, US products that use them (such as electronics, high tech, trainers) could go up in price, also for us Italians and Europeans.

The hypothesis of repercussions over time on the prices of Italian products

For the prices of Italian and European products, there could be repercussions over time, although this is not certain. Some, in fact, believe that our companies, in order to compensate for the reduction in sales and lower earnings in the United States, could increase prices in Italy. It is a hypothesis, we do not know for sure, notes Altroconsumo: the surplus of products (i.e. the amount of extra products, as they are no longer exported to the US) could also lead to lower prices in the European domestic market, in order to increase demand and sales and thus compensate for losses, rather than by raising prices.

The cost of energy

This would not be a direct effect of tariffs, but a part of the agreement reached between the EU and the US, which has yet to be clarified in reality: Europe would in fact have undertaken to purchase more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, for a total of 750 billion euro up to 2027; an enormous quota, which the United States would find difficult to guarantee (moreover, Eni has already concluded a 20-year agreement precisely on LNG with the American Venture Capital). However, if what has been announced is confirmed, it would mean replacing Russian gas with an alternative that is more expensive for us due to transport by ship, storage, and regasification. And this could have an impact on the electricity and gas bills of businesses and families, and thus also on prices, since businesses could pass on the higher energy costs precisely to the products and services offered to citizens.

The cost of drugs

At the moment, it is not known whether tariffs of up to 15% will be imposed on all medicines produced in Europe or whether certain medicines defined as 'essential' will be excluded. What we do know, however, is that tariffs on exports to the States would be unlikely to lead to an immediate price increase for us Italians and Europeans, not least because there are regulatory mechanisms in our pharmaceutical sector that would prevent price changes 'overnight'.

In the long run, however, Altroconsumo again notes, pharmaceutical companies could try to pass on the reduction in sales due to tariffs to Italian and European consumers. We do not know if, how and when this might happen but, in this case, the increases would mainly affect our public spending: the majority of the medicines we use in Italy, in fact, are hospital or band A (with a doctor's prescription, paying only the co-payment) and are largely paid for by the National Health Service.

Investments

Even on the profits of companies, on their share prices and thus on the investments of Italians there is fear of possible repercussions: read the advice of Altroconsumo Investi.

The possible effects on the economy

In addition to the more direct and tangible potential effects in daily life, there are a number of important 'macro-economic' effects of tariffs (which, however, would have an impact on the pockets of Italian consumers in the long run).

Exports, GDP and labour

The first effect is on Italian exports: as we said, it could happen that the higher tariffs push importers to raise their prices in the US to compensate for the extra cost; and, as a result, US retailers and traders could also raise their final prices, American consumers could then buy less, with repercussions for our industry's exports and thus for our economy.