Manoeuvre, government studies new deductions for children and concessions for young couples

The manoeuvre's construction site starts again from the growth framework, on which the debt and deficit parameters on which the budget law will be built will depend: the first provisional estimates contained in the Dpfp, the document that will be sent to Parliament by 2 October, show a tendential growth, i.e. without taking into account the stimulus measures for the economy, equal to +0.5% for 2025 and +0.7% in 2026. A GDP, on which to build the framework of the manoeuvre, slowing down this year from 0.7% in 2024 unless stimulus measures such as car incentives are taken into account, and then showing a slight momentum: the OECD forecasts 0.6% for 2025 and 2026, S&P sees a momentum at 0.8% in 2026.

Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti will speak about this today at 3pm in the Senate, but in connection with an electoral event of the League in Pesaro, he explains: 'I am aware of the course, clearly I do not do as those who put on autopilot and do not realise the storms that are coming, the course has been somewhat disturbed by storms' starting with the war in Ukraine. Rather, the minister's emphasis goes to Fitch's promotion of the rating and the spread below 80 basis points, lower than that of France: 'It's not that when we celebrate the rating, the spread, these things have no meaning, with spreads at 250 the cost of interest would have eaten up the possibility of reducing taxes and spending on healthcare'. And on the spending-side measures being prepared for the manoeuvre, he puts two points firmly on the table: scrapping tax bills, although 'fiscal peace is a better term than scrapping,' he says in connection with a Lega electoral event in Pesaro. 'We are working on it, we are now in sight of a reasonable result.

On the revenue side, on the other hand, the Lega Nord minister defines "absolutely dutiful" a contribution from the banks where "we are not going to make crusades, we will sit down at the table with them and find a way for them to make a contribution to tax relief": it is a matter of intervening in a sector that has made "stratospheric profits" but "without bullying anyone". A political lunge that comes as the majority partner Forza Italia met in the Senate with a delegation of the ABI led by president Antonio Patuelli and reiterated "its position against the introduction of any new tax on anyone," including banks, given the "positive trend of the agreement established last year, which will bring more than EUR 4 billion to the state budget for the years 2025 and 2026. A knot to untie that may change the available resources, which will in any case rest on the good revenue trend in the first half of the year, after a 2024 in which Istat certified an increase in the tax burden from 41.2 to 42.5%.

In addition to the scrapping, there are the measures for the family, where the intention to link deductions to the number of children 'is a priority that we particularly care about,' explained Deputy Minister for the Economy Maurizio Leo, as well as 'concessions for the purchase or rental of real estate for young couples. The intention to capitalise on a favourable moment on the accounts that could also be recognised by the other rating agencies at the end of the year, however, will impose choices on the measures: 'we must select them, see what resources we can rely on,' Leo explained, 'the one on the middle class that is a priority, the proposal of the bonus IRES for companies, the proposal of the scrapping, the one on the house,' i.e. the 50% deduction for building renovation of the first house.