Government at the Ukraine decree test: countdown to the Kiev support measure

A double match, played at the same time. Two camps, same players. In fact, there is not only the manovra that, after a politically eventful passage through the Senate Budget Committee, starting with the Lega's battle on pensions, is about to reach the Chamber on Monday 22 December for the first green light of a troubled path of parliamentary conversion that must result in the final green light of the Chamber by the end of the year, if the provisional exercise is to be averted. There is another dossier that divides the majority, and it concerns the Ukraine Decree, the measure that extends the authorisation on arms and financing for the entire year. And which must be passed by the 31st of this month. The government is trying to recompose itself after days on the roller coaster, but there is no shortage of opportunities for friction. And the Carroccio demands discontinuity.

The forthcoming decree for aid to Ukraine, which had already fallen off the list of measures on the agenda of the Council of Ministers on 2 December, is thus burdened by the need to find a compromise on actual support for Kiev. On the understanding that there will be no backtracking on support for the country invaded by Russia. Support which, Fratelli d'Italia bigwigs pointed out, was at the first point of the government programme signed by all the allies. Lega included. "We work so that the Ukraine decree focuses on defence and not on attacking Russia," stressed deputy prime minister and Carroccio leader Matteo Salvini, who is against military aid to Kiev. "The Ukraine decree? There will be mostly civilian aid, of course. But also weapons,' clarified the other deputy premier, Forza Italia leader Antonio Tajani. 'If the League wants us to insist a lot on the civil aid aspect well, we agree,' he said in an interview with La Stampa. 'Predominantly', however, does not exclude sending military aid as well, which can also mean equipment,' he said. There is uncertainty about the timing of the dossier: at present it is still unclear whether it will be launched by the government before or after Christmas. The two possible dates remain Monday 22 or Monday 29 December. But there is no doubt that the green light for the measure will be given by 31 December. In a spat via social media with PD senator Filippo Sensi, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto gave the line: 'Making the decree for 2026 on 1 December or 29 December does not change anything, because a decree law comes into force immediately and it is enough for us that it is in force on 1 January. Making it as late as possible is just a way to have more time for conversion'.

Since 2022, four decree-laws have been approved to militarily support Kiev: passed in the Cdm, those frame measures have been converted into law by the Houses of Parliament, allowing twelve military aid packages to be sent in four years with as many interministerial decrees, for which only illustration to the Parliamentary Committee for the Security of the Republic is required. The Samp-T air defence system, armed with Aster missiles, is among the few items confirmed by the government within those supply packages, which are always secret. However, troop transport vehicles such as the old M130s, Lince armoured vehicles, Stinger and Milan shoulder-fired missiles, anti-tank mortars, heavy and light machine guns, bulletproof vests, helmets, k-rations and bullets in large quantities, as well as generator sets and generators, should also have been included. Now these supplies could be better structured in the restyling of the decree, a prerequisite for the League to vote for the new measure.

Work on the text of the measure continues feverishly in these hours. The sticking point lies in a couple of expressions, which the League considers indispensable. The one that specifies that aid must be of a 'civil and humanitarian' nature, and one example is the generators and generators that can help save lives in operating theatres. The other passage requested by the Carroccio is that the weapons sent are of a defensive nature and therefore not long-range. Obviously, the party in Via Bellerio points out that much will also depend on the ongoing international negotiations, hoping that they will soon lead to peace. Words that in substance do not change the 'multidisciplinary' support confirmed by Meloni to Parliament and put in black and white in the majority resolution approved last Wednesday. But which would serve the League - it is always pointed out in some sections of the majority - to clear itself of accusations of being warmongers and then be able to sell the position to its electorate. The final text, i.e. the point at which the negotiations fall apart, will be a litmus test of the balance of power within the majority.