Grana Padano, consumption 2026 up (also) thanks to price drop

An export growth of between 3.5 and 4%. An increase of almost 2% even in domestic consumption, a rarity in the stagnation of Italian shopping carts. And despite the combination of an 8% excess in production with a drop in over-the-counter prices of up to 10%, there is even an increase in revenues for stables and processors. 'For Grana Padano I would like another 20 years like 2025,' says the general manager of the protection consortium, Stefano Berni.

For 27 years at the helm of the world's best-selling PDO, Berni looks back on the year that has just ended with some satisfaction, and looks to 2026 with a fair amount of optimism. Despite the alarm caused by the collapse in the price of milk in Italy, which began with the autumn: 'Grana Padano,' explains the director, 'is the most remunerative destination in the world for those who produce milk from corn-fed cows. So, when the selling price collapsed to 45 cents per litre, all the farmers in the Grana Padano circuit preferred to pour the rest of their milk into the consortium as well'. The result was that instead of the planned 3 per cent, the overproduction reached 8 per cent.

When supply increases, you know, the price drops. And Grana Padano in November, on the retail market, even reached price peaks of 10% less. Here, however, comes the surprise: 'The drop in price,' says Berni, 'is turning into a huge growth in purchases: again in November, according to Circana data, they increased by 7%. We were hoping for this, of course, but we did not expect such growth. And in the end everyone benefits, from the cow breeder to the milk processor, because despite the fall in price, the increase in quantities bought is such that the final result brings the turnover of the Grana Padana companies to the plus sign".

In any case, in order to avoid new production peaks like those of the last three to four months, the consortium assembly voted by a very large majority at the end of December that by 2026 Grana Padano production would have to increase significantly compared to 2024, but slow down compared to the second half of 2025, and this through a 'slow down exaggeration' mechanism, as Berni called it.

Exports do not seem to be showing any signs of weakening, not even on the US front: 'For us,' says the CEO, 'only the announcements hurt. Then, when it was discovered that Trump's tariffs remained at 15%, as they always have been, everything continued as before and at the end of 2025 in the US we closed with a plus sign, although not a huge one'. More surprising was the performance of other foreign markets: "The market that surprised us the most in 2025 was Poland, which grew in double figures, more than equally growing countries like Belgium and Spain." However, the first shadows are gathering over Germany: 'It is our historically most important market,' says Berni, 'it is worth 25% of all our exports and we are already seeing a slight minus sign.