Open seats

Britain on the ballot: in pole Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour party. The unknown factor is the numbers

The real question mark of this election is not who will win but how they will win

3 July 2024Aggiornato il 4 luglio 2024 alle ore 7.30

Gran Bretagna al voto, Labour in vantaggio ma pesa silenzio su Brexit

4' min read

LONDON
Polling stations are open in the four nations of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) for the elections to renew the 650 seats in the House of Commons. Around 50 million eligible Britons, out of a population of almost 68 million, are being called to the polls between 7 a.m. local time (8 a.m. in Italy) and 10 p.m. (11 p.m. in Italy). A new prime minister could take office in Downing Street: Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour party. So all the polls seem to indicate, which give Labour a strong lead over the Conservatives, in power for 14 years. Six weeks of electoral campaigning, live TV debates, personal attacks and social media posts have not in the slightest closed the gap of about 20 points separating the two main parties: 40% for Labour and 20% for the Tories.

Premier Rishi Sunak, who had surprised everyone, including his ministers, when he announced the elections for 4 July instead of in the autumn as planned, seems set to lose the boldest gamble of his short political career.
"This election is not a referendum on the past, but a vote for the future," Sunak said and reiterated. However, it is difficult for him to distance himself from the 14 years of Conservative government and especially from the political chaos and economic decline of the last legislature. The Tories have had five prime ministers in eight years, three of them in the space of a few months, plus a whirlwind of ministers.

The turning points of the last 5 years

At the last election, in December 2019, Boris Johnson had been elected with an overwhelming majority in the wake of Brexit. The political landscape has completely changed since then: a series of scandals such as Partygate, the illegal parties at Downing Street during the lockdown, have eroded voter confidence in the party. The pandemic, the impact of the war in Ukraine and soaring prices aggravated the economic crisis, leading to a collapse in living standards of British citizens unprecedented since the post-war period.

On Tuesday evening, in a surprise move, Johnson participated for the first time in the election campaign alongside Sunak, to warn of the dangers of a "left-wing government" and to urge the faithful to still hope. 'It is not too late to avoid falling into the abyss,' the former premier declared. Other party bigwigs, however, seem to believe defeat is inevitable. Mel Stride, pensions minister, said Labour would 'win the biggest majority ever seen in Britain'.

Il premier britanno Rishi Sunak è stato tra i primi a votare

Polls say 'punishment' is coming for the Tories

Barring any last-minute surprises, which would mean a loss of credibility for the pollsters, voters are therefore preparing to 'punish' the Tories and vote for the Labour party. Starmer has staked everything on two words that have made an impression: 'change' and 'stability': the promise is to turn over a new leaf, to return to a 'politics at the service of the citizens' and to put the country back on track, without the jolts of recent years.
While the Conservative Party has spiralled downwards with scandals and internal feuds and has given space to the most extreme factions, the Labour Party's course has been just as resounding but in the opposite direction.

In December 2019 Labour, then led by Jeremy Corbyn on the far left of the party, had suffered the worst defeat in its history. Starmer, who became leader in 2020, declared that he would change the party and so he did. With an almost brutal determination he marginalised or excluded the left-wing extremists - Corbyn himself was forced to stand in the election as an independent candidate.
Assisted by Rachel Reeves, shadow chancellor and former economist at the Bank of England, Starmer brought the Labour Party back to more centrist and moderate positions and courted business by proposing a credible economic programme. This is why he was now able to declare in the election campaign that he had turned 'a protest movement into a party of government'.

The unknown about post-voting numbers

The real question mark of this election is not who will win but how they will win. In a dry uninominal system such as the British one, whoever wins even one more vote 'takes it all', but a decisive majority in Parliament would give more credibility and stability to a Labour government. Polls point to a doubling of Labour seats to over 400, while the Conservatives could collapse from 365 to less than a hundred. It would be the worst performance in a century for the party that dominated post-war British politics.

Growing minor parties

In the last days of the election campaign the distance between Labour and the Tories remained unchanged at 20 points, but something changed: the smaller parties gained support. Particularly notable was the rise of Reform, the former Brexit Party, led by the populist and popular Nigel Farage, who is aligned on extreme right-wing and strongly anti-immigration positions. Predictions are of a wave of protest votes for Reform from right-wing conservative voters disillusioned with the party. Votes that may not translate into seats, given the single-round majority system, but would hurt the Tories.

The Liberal Democrat party, the most pro-European of the British parties, has also regained support and seems certain to take away from the Tories the votes of many centre voters who want to punish the government but do not feel like voting for Labour.
Labour may have to cede some votes, especially of young people, to the Greens, but its main enemy is precisely the advantage the party has had for months in all the polls. Starmer has repeatedly expressed the fear that voters will now take victory for granted and decide there is no need to go out and vote. Voter turnout will be decisive.