Cdm, green light for Dpfp: deficit at 3% and GDP +0.5% in 2025
In the Documento programmatico di finanza pubblica the programmed GDP growth rate stands at 0.7% in 2026; in 2027 at 0.8%; in 2028 at 0.9%.
Key points
- Dpfp in the classroom on 9 October
- Deficit/GDP at 3% this year
- Debt falling in 2027, drops to 136.4% in 2028
- In 2026 +0.15% GDP to defence expenditure, if out of procedure
- In the manoeuvre less taxes on labour income, funds for healthcare
- For coverage manoeuvre mix of revenue and expenditure measures
- Giorgetti: firm and prudent responsibility in the Dpfp
- Irpef cut
- Final OK to enabling bill on sustainable nuclear power
Deficit at 3% already this year. GDP at 0.5% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with a potential expansionary effect of one decimal from the manoeuvre. The government updates the macro estimates and sets the course and margins for the next economic measures. Starting from the budget law, the fourth of the Meloni executive, which will start from some priorities: tax, families and work, with the unknown but still to be verified defence spending. The new programmatic framework of the state accounts is set out in the Dpfp, the Public Finance Planning Document approved by the Cabinet, which updates the April forecasts and outlines the guidelines for what will be the next manoeuvre.
The projected GDP growth rate stands at 0.7% in 2026; in 2027 at 0.8%; in 2028 at 0.9%. The tendential growth rate is 0.7 per cent in 2026 and 2027 and 0.8 per cent in 2028. This was announced by the MefM at the end of the cdm that approved the Dpfp. "These data," the ministry states, "are based on very conservative estimates that are also affected by the international geopolitical context.
Dpfp in plenary on 9 October
The text, approved by the Council of Ministers, will then be sent to Brussels and to the Houses of Parliament, which have already scheduled its examination in the House for 9 October. Growth is slightly revised downwards compared to the six-month-old estimates in the Public Finance Document (Dfp), which set the GDP bar at +0.6% this year and +0.8% next year.
Deficit/GDP at 3% this year
The positive signal comes from indebtedness: thanks to the good performance of net primary expenditure, the deficit, which in April was estimated at 3.3%, is now projected at 3% in 2025, locking in a crucial threshold to be able to hope for an exit from the excessive deficit procedure initiated in July 2024 one year early (the Dfp envisaged a drop below 3% only in 2026, with a deficit at 2.8%).
Debt decreasing in 2027, falls to 136.4% in 2028
"The debt in the Dpfp is lower than in the Psb (where it was 137.8 in 2026) and, in programmatic terms, also lower than the trend debt in the spring document. This indicator starts to decline as early as 2027 and stands at 136.4 in 2028 when the effect of the superbonus will be eliminated'. This was announced by the MEF in a note on the Dpfp.

