Towards manoeuvre

Cdm, green light for Dpfp: deficit at 3% and GDP +0.5% in 2025

In the Documento programmatico di finanza pubblica the programmed GDP growth rate stands at 0.7% in 2026; in 2027 at 0.8%; in 2028 at 0.9%.

by Rome Editorial Staff

Una veduta esterna di Palazzo Chigi durante il Consiglio dei ministri. ANSA/ALESSANDRO DI MEO

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Deficit at 3% already this year. GDP at 0.5% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, with a potential expansionary effect of one decimal from the manoeuvre. The government updates the macro estimates and sets the course and margins for the next economic measures. Starting from the budget law, the fourth of the Meloni executive, which will start from some priorities: tax, families and work, with the unknown but still to be verified defence spending. The new programmatic framework of the state accounts is set out in the Dpfp, the Public Finance Planning Document approved by the Cabinet, which updates the April forecasts and outlines the guidelines for what will be the next manoeuvre.

The projected GDP growth rate stands at 0.7% in 2026; in 2027 at 0.8%; in 2028 at 0.9%. The tendential growth rate is 0.7 per cent in 2026 and 2027 and 0.8 per cent in 2028. This was announced by the MefM at the end of the cdm that approved the Dpfp. "These data," the ministry states, "are based on very conservative estimates that are also affected by the international geopolitical context.

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Dpfp in plenary on 9 October

The text, approved by the Council of Ministers, will then be sent to Brussels and to the Houses of Parliament, which have already scheduled its examination in the House for 9 October. Growth is slightly revised downwards compared to the six-month-old estimates in the Public Finance Document (Dfp), which set the GDP bar at +0.6% this year and +0.8% next year.

Deficit/GDP at 3% this year

The positive signal comes from indebtedness: thanks to the good performance of net primary expenditure, the deficit, which in April was estimated at 3.3%, is now projected at 3% in 2025, locking in a crucial threshold to be able to hope for an exit from the excessive deficit procedure initiated in July 2024 one year early (the Dfp envisaged a drop below 3% only in 2026, with a deficit at 2.8%).

Debt decreasing in 2027, falls to 136.4% in 2028

"The debt in the Dpfp is lower than in the Psb (where it was 137.8 in 2026) and, in programmatic terms, also lower than the trend debt in the spring document. This indicator starts to decline as early as 2027 and stands at 136.4 in 2028 when the effect of the superbonus will be eliminated'. This was announced by the MEF in a note on the Dpfp.

In 2026 +0.15% GDP to defence expenditure, if out of procedure

The Dfp accounts for the increase of 0.15 % of GDP in 2026, 0.3 % in 2027 and 0.5 % in 2028 to be allocated to defence expenditure. This increase is conditional on the exit from the excessive deficit procedure, in light of the debt profile in that document. This was stated in a note by the MefM on the Dpfp. The defence spending that the government expects to commit to in the PFD, assuming Italy can exit the EU infringement procedure for excessive deficit, amounts to approximately 12 billion euro. Starting from the amount of Italian GDP in 2024, the 0.15 per cent of expenditure expected next year is approximately 3.3 billion. In 2027 it would then rise to 0.3 per cent of GDP, incorporating - as explained - the 0.15 per cent already earmarked in 2025 and thus reaching a total of 6-7 billion. In 2028 it would then rise to 0.5 per cent in total, amounting to about 12 billion over three years.

Giorgetti: firm and prudent responsibility in the Dpfp

"We confirm the line of firm and prudent responsibility that takes into account the need for public finance to be kept in line with the new European rules, but within the framework of indispensable measures in favour of the economic and social growth of workers, families and businesses," said Economy and Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti on the sidelines of the approval of the Dpfp in the Council of Ministers.

In the manoeuvre less taxes on labour income, funds for healthcare

As far as the measures of the manoeuvre are concerned, the Dpfp outlines an initial skeleton. But the definition of the measures will take shape in the coming weeks, first with the Budget Planning Document expected in Brussels on 15 October and then with the arrival of the budget law before the 20th in Parliament. With the manoeuvre 'a re-composition of the tax levy will take place, reducing the incidence of the burden on labour income, and a further refinancing of the national health fund will be guaranteed. In order to give continuity to the measures approved by the government, specific measures will be envisaged to stimulate business investments and ensure their competitiveness," the MEF announced at the end of the Cabinet meeting that approved the budget bill. In addition, 'measures to support the birth rate and work-life balance will be increased'.

The priority starting point is the cut in the Irpef tax, which will affect the middle class this year, with a two-point reduction in the second rate from 35% to 33% for incomes from 28 thousand to 50 thousand euro. New measures for families are also being studied, starting with a new intervention on deductions with the family quotient. Deputy Minister for the Economy Maurizio Leo reiterated the objective of making the Ires bonus structural, simplifying it. Also for companies, after the difficulties of Transition 5.0, work is also being done on "a horizontal incentive tool", announced the Minister for Enterprise Adolfo Urso, with "national resources".

For healthcare, the goal is to raise 2-3 billion more than the 4 billion already provided for in the last budget law: the urgency is to improve salaries and bring in new people, while at the Ministry of Health they are already working on a 27,000-hire plan, giving priority to nurses. Manoeuvre that could also renew the resources for the SEZs: the government's commitment with Confindustria, indicated Undersecretary for the South Luigi Sbarra, is that "the financial endowment will be confirmed and improved".

For coverage manoeuvre mix measures on revenue and expenditure

'A combination of measures on the revenue side and measures on the expenditure side contribute to the financing of the manoeuvre; the latter take into account the monitoring carried out and the adjustment of the relevant expenditure schedules'. This is stated by the MEF in the note on the Dpfp.

Final OK to enabling bill on sustainable nuclear power

The Council of Ministers also gave its final approval to the draft bill delegating the government powers on sustainable nuclear energy. "With this measure," said Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, "Italy is providing itself with a fundamental tool to look to the future with realism and ambition. We want to play a leading role in new technologies, from Smr and Amr to fusion, within the framework of technological neutrality and the European energy transition. Sustainable nuclear power is a choice of innovation, safety and responsibility towards citizens, businesses and the environment'.

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