Green transition: higher risk for large, energy-intensive companies
Large companies in sectors such as metallurgy, transport, energy and logistics are more exposed. However, the risk is low for 62 per cent of businesses
Key points
A great opportunity to innovate and improve the efficiency of production processes, and to capture new market shares and create jobs. But it is also one of the greatest financial challenges facing the Italian industrial sector, as demonstrated by the findings of a study carried out by Cerved ESG Ratings, ‘ESG Connect 2026 – The objectives and economic significance of the climate transition for businesses’. This analysis, based on the financial statements of European and Italian companies, not only examined and compared decarbonisation strategies but also assessed the level of exposure of Italian companies (1.8 million limited companies analysed) to so-called transition risk.
A major financial challenge
A financial risk linked to the investments required to upgrade production facilities and processes which, particularly for companies in the most energy-intensive sectors, can be substantial and thus hinder the transition itself, resulting in increased debt, reduced profit margins and diminished competitiveness.
The good news is that in Italia the transition risk is low for the vast majority of the companies analysed (62.5 per cent), as explained by Andrea Cincinnati Cini, CEO of Cerved ESG Ratings, and only around 20 per cent fall into the medium-risk category. However, there is a significant proportion – 16.9 per cent – that falls into the high and very high risk categories, particularly affecting large companies, ‘given that in Italia, large companies are generally the most energy-intensive, operating in sectors such as metallurgy, transport, energy and logistics – manufacturing sectors characterised by a higher transition risk”, explains Cincinnati.
A systematic approach is needed
From a numerical perspective, therefore, the distribution of risk indicates a downward shift; however, as this risk is associated primarily with large enterprises – which have a high economic value of their associated assets (almost 1,000 billion euros and approximately 745 billion euros in revenue) – it is clear that there is a need to accelerate and facilitate the transition of the Italian industrial system, supporting it with a coordinated, system-wide approach, observes Cincinnati. ‘Banks should not shy away from helping businesses make the transition, but given that they cannot, in turn, expose themselves to the risk of not being repaid, the state should also step in, through tax incentives, subsidies and guarantees for companies.’
This is also because the timeframe for complying with the targets set by the European Union is beginning to shrink, and Italia is lagging behind its European neighbours, as demonstrated by the other part of the Cerved ESG Ratings study, which focuses on the decarbonisation plans disclosed by Italian and European companies in their consolidated financial statements.
