Greenland, disputed land

Geopolitics

Greenland, Nato: 'Threat in the Arctic grows'. The countermeasures Europe is studying to stop Trump

Brussels and Copenhagen study strategies to counter US pressure on the Arctic island, including European investments, NATO mediation and possible trade retaliation.

11 January 2026

I membri delle forze armate danesi si esercitano nella ricerca di potenziali minacce durante un'esercitazione militare, mentre unità della guardia nazionale danese, svedese e norvegese, insieme a truppe danesi, tedesche e francesi, partecipano a esercitazioni militari congiunte a Kangerlussuaq, in Groenlandia, il 17 settembre 2025. REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane/Foto d'archivio

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Now that Donald Trump is speaking in increasingly assertive tones about the possible takeover of Greenland - without excluding the use of force - his threats are no longer considered mere rhetorical provocations in Brussels and among European governments. Governments, diplomats and experts are already studying possible countermeasures to dissuade Washington, considering a range of options from negotiated compromise to economic retaliation to a possible European military presence on the territory. Politico has collected the assessments of NATO officials and insiders, outlining four possible courses of action.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen confirmed today that Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen will meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for talks on Greenland next week. "We are at a crossroads," Frederiksen said at a party conference, according to the Ritzau news agency. Rubio had said he would meet with Danish representatives next week, after Denmark and Greenland had requested talks with the senior US diplomat.

EU Commissioner: the days of pax americana are over

For Europe 'now is the time to deliver' on defence, 'because, as Chancellor Merz recently said, the time for American pax is over'. This was said by EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius at the security policy conference in Salen, Sweden. After 'Washington's national security strategy, Venezuela and the threats to Greenland, it is now even clearer that we have to build Europe's independence,' he emphasised.

Nato: 'Threat in the Arctic grows, we strengthen activities'

"The allies are cooperating closely on Arctic issues," recently it was "agreed to deepen our understanding of Arctic activities and increase our activities and exercises in the far north. Military cooperation in this region has never been stronger'. This was said by the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces, General Alexus Grynkewich, at the Security and Defence Policy Conference in Salen, Sweden. "In the far north, Russian and Chinese ships are conducting more and more joint patrols," he stressed, adding that the threat will become "ever greater".

Finding a compromise

The quickest way to defuse the crisis, according to several European interlocutors, would be an agreement allowing Trump to claim political success while saving face for Denmark and Greenland. The US president considers the island crucial for national security and accuses Copenhagen of not adequately protecting it from Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic. A mediating role for NATO is being considered, as well as a strengthening of the allied military presence in the region - with exercises, increased investments and a possible 'Arctic Sentinel'-type mechanism - to reassure Washington and meet US security demands.

Meloni: Non credo all'azione militare degli Stati Uniti contro la Groenlandia

Offering nuuk financial resources

The White House has supported Greenland's independence movements by promising substantial US investments in the event of secession from Denmark. In contrast, the EU and Copenhagen are banking on an alternative offer: a significant increase in direct economic support for the island in order to dissuade it from a rapprochement with Washington. In its long-term budget plans, Brussels intends to 'more than double' the funds allocated to Greenland, with resources for welfare, health, education, green transition, and the development of raw material extraction, so as to make the European model more competitive against the US promise of a 'shower of dollars'.

Monroe ieri, Maduro oggi e Groenlandia...

Economic Retribution

Should Trump proceed with coercive measures, the EU could react on the trade level. The anti-coercion instrument - created after the first Trump administration - would allow Brussels to respond to discriminatory practices with targeted countermeasures. With European exports to the US exceeding EUR 600 billion per year, the pressure capacity of the European bloc is significant, provided Washington finds the threat credible. However, the doubt remains as to the real political will of the Union to make use of it after past postponements.

"Boots on the ground"

If the US opted for military action in Greenland, European margins for manoeuvre would be significantly reduced. In the case of limited operations, the Danish authorities could attempt police action; a large-scale invasion, on the other hand, would open up much more critical scenarios. A 1952 standing order would oblige Denmark to react militarily in case of an attack on its territory, and some European diplomats speculate sending allied troops to support Copenhagen as a deterrent. A European military presence would act as a 'tripwire', increasing the political cost of a US action, but would entail high risks and the real possibility of casualties.