Growth and accounts, the numbers behind the 2026 manoeuvre in the Cdm today

The veil is lifted on the macroeconomic framework that will frame the measures of the next Budget Law. The new Public Finance Planning Document (Documento programmatico di finanza pubblica - Dpfp), which is on its way to the Council of Ministers' table, should bring a small margin from the good performance of the accounts, which should also help to bring forward the descent of the deficit to the fateful 3% threshold. All other resources - according to the new rules - will have to be found with cuts or new taxes. At the Ministry of the Economy, the figures that will make up the framework of the document that replaces the old Nadef are being ironed out. It will contain, as agreed in the united resolution of the majority and opposition, an update of the estimates at current legislation of the Nadef, the programmatic forecasts over the three-year period, the net expenditure aggregate and will also provide for the first time a first articulation of the measures of the budget law.

From the net primary expenditure figure, which is the new benchmark for Brussels, could come an indication of a margin of resources to be used for the manoeuvre. According to some indiscretions, there would be 8 billion, but the figure has not been officially confirmed, and indeed caution is called for. For growth, the tendential data sets the bar at +0.5% this year (but current calculations do not exclude the possibility of an extra decimal point) and +0.7% next year. The real surprise will come from the debt, which in April's Dfp was indicated at 3.3% this year and 2.8% next year: as anticipated by Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti and confirmed by documents from the MEF, the 2025 deficit is aiming at the 3% target, which would allow our country to exit the infringement procedure a year earlier than expected. Eyes are also on the debt, which the Dfp set at 136.6% of GDP this year, rising to 137.6% in 2026 and falling to 137.4% in 2027.

"Compared to 18 months ago it is no longer expected to stabilise, but is on an upward trajectory," warns Morgan Stanley, which estimates an increase to 139.7% by 2026. The exit from the infringement procedure meanwhile could give Italy the possibility of using the safeguard clause for defence investments. On the subject, Giorgetti reiterates his 'pragmatic' approach: 'we want to hold firm to the budget commitments made at international level, we must keep to those made for defence capabilities,' he explains, opening up to loans from the Safe programme, with a view to 'promoting industry'.

Having overcome the first hurdle of the Dpfp, there are little more than two weeks ahead to put together the manoeuvre puzzle. It starts with the new Irpef cut, which this year focuses on the middle class: the second rate should go from 35% to 33%, but at the moment the orientation is to leave the bracket unchanged up to 50,000, without an increase to 60,000 euro. At the top of the priorities is also the chapter on families, which should include a new intervention on deductions, continuing along the path of the family quotient begun last year. There will also be the tax-collection procedure, but with a reduction from the 10 years and 120 instalments envisaged by the bill proposed by the League: among the hypotheses, a duration of 8 years and 96 instalments for smaller debts is being considered. Deputy Minister for the Economy Maurizio Leo is not unbalanced: 'We are working on it. We are seeing all the hypotheses of the majority,' he says. On the available resources front, the outcome of the counts on the concordato preventivo for VAT numbers, which has just been concluded, is awaited. According to some estimates, the number of adhesions would be at 10 per cent of the total. "Perhaps even more," says Leo, who shifts the emphasis to the "substantial number" of subjects that between this operation and the previous one have been brought out of the shadow zone. The hypothetical contribution of the banks should also be ascribed to the revenue chapter: they would aim to raise 2.5-3 billion. But the tipping point will be found in the negotiations - still to be initiated - with the institutions.