Pharmaceuticals

Gsk exceeds expectations in the quarter but disappoints the market on estimates

The group's share price lost more than 6% due to the weak performance of the more mature respiratory drug business

by Mo.D.

29 April 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Group weakness
Quarterly data
The new ceo's strategy
The estimates for 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

GSK posted an above-expected first quarter on the earnings front, but did not fully convince the market, which continues to question the quality of growth and strength of the product portfolio. The performance of the more mature respiratory drugs business, which showed signs of weakness, weighed particularly heavily, leaving the HIV and oncology segments to support overall results.

The share price reacted negatively in London, losing more than 6%, recording its steepest decline in nine months. The move reduced the gain since the start of the year to around 3%, despite a better-than-expected earnings picture. Investors focused their attention on the so-called 'general medicines' division, whose sales fell by 9%, partly in light of changes in prescriptions in the US, particularly in public insurance programmes aimed at the elderly population.

The weakness of the group

The result highlights an underlying dynamic that the market continues to monitor: the group's difficulty in balancing the contribution of more established lines with that of newer, higher-growth drugs. In this context, the comparison with AstraZeneca - which recently reported better-than-expected results driven by oncology - highlights the still-evolving path of GSK, which has only in recent years significantly re-entered the cancer segment after a long period of disengagement.

The data for the quarter

In terms of numbers, adjusted earnings per share came in at 46.5 pence for the quarter, exceeding the 43.2 pence expected by consensus. However, according to several analysts, including those at Oddo led by Martial Descoutures, the positive surprise was partly attributable to non-recurring factors, including litigation-related effects, raising questions about the sustainability of the performance.

Among the strengths of the quarter was the performance of the Shingrix vaccine, which recorded record sales, confirming the central role of the vaccine division in the group's business model. However, it is precisely on this segment that some of the main uncertainties of the outlook are concentrated. In the United States, the critical positions expressed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on immunisation programmes could in fact influence recommendations and, consequently, demand.

The new ceo's strategy

At the heart of the strategy remains the work of new CEO Luke Miels, who has been called upon to revitalise the group and boost investor confidence after years of perplexity over its ability to innovate. Since his appointment, announced to replace Emma Walmsley, the stock has rallied around 34%, a sign of high expectations about the prospects for change.

Miels indicated a more agile approach and greater 'scientific boldness' as a priority, with the aim of compensating for, among other things, the loss of revenues related to the future patent expiry of an important HIV drug. The review of about 50 late-stage development programmes, aimed at identifying initiatives to be accelerated, is part of this direction. The results of this review will be reported with the Q2 accounts.

At the same time, the group is taking action on the reallocation of resources, with a stronger focus on areas with the greatest growth potential. 'We want to move resources, people, expenditure and capital to where the opportunities are concentrated,' Miels emphasised, outlining a strategy geared towards improving efficiency and enhancing industrial execution.

On the commercial front, the contribution of speciality drugs remains decisive. Products such as Jemperli, used in the treatment of endometrial cancer, and Apretude, used in HIV prevention, are expected to sustain growth throughout the year, with double-digit expansion rates expected.

The estimates for 2026

Looking ahead, GSK plans to accelerate investment in research and development, which will grow at a faster rate than revenues in 2026. The plan includes the launch of ten new late-stage clinical trials, reflecting a commitment to strengthening the pipeline and supporting long-term growth.

The strategy also includes targeted external growth operations. This includes the acquisition of US biotech RAPT Therapeutics, specialising in treatments for inflammatory and immunological diseases, for $2.2 billion, as well as a separate deal for a pulmonary hypertension drug.

According to analysts' consensus, the group could accompany these initiatives with a efficiency programme, aimed at sustaining profitability in the short term while strengthening the pipeline. The picture that emerges is one of a transitional phase, in which solid quarterly results are not sufficient to dispel doubts about the quality of growth. More than the quarterly numbers, the market is looking at GSK's ability to build a credible and sustainable path over the medium to long term.

Monica D’Ascenzoredattrice
Luogo: Milano
Lingue parlate: Italiano, inglese
Argomenti: Finanza, startup, diversity
Premi: Premio dell'Associazione per lo Sviluppo economico per il libro "Donne sull'orlo della crisi economica"
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