Pharmaceuticals

GSK raises profit and revenue estimates thanks to HIV and immunology drugs

In London, the stock gained over 5.5 per cent after beating analysts' estimates for the third quarter

29 October 2025

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

Estimates 2025
Growth driven by specialist drugs

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Gsk has revised upwards its profit and revenue forecasts for the current year, boosted by sales of its HIV drugs and immunology therapies. In the latest quarterly report signed off by Emma Walmsley as CEO, the group posted a net profit of £2.01 billion, compared to a loss in the same period last year due to Zantac drug-related expenses. Revenues for the quarter were up 7% to £8.55 billion (up 8% at constant exchange rates). Core earnings per share were 55 pence, up 11% year-on-year (up 14% at constant exchange rates), compared to 47 pence estimated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Gsk's share price was up 5.6 per cent in London trading, but then pared some of its gains. Since the start of the year, the stock is up 27.58 per cent, outperforming its main competitors, including AstraZeneca (+17.65 per cent).

Estimates 2025

For the full year, the group expects core earnings per share to grow between 10% and 12% at constant exchange rates, net of extraordinary items, compared to a previous estimate of 8% growth. Estimates for revenues are for an increase between 6% and 7% at constant exchange rates.

"We remain very cautious about the US vaccine environment," Walmsley said in a call with reporters, adding, "However, we are optimistic about the medium to long term: the pipeline will begin to bear fruit towards the end of this decade, when the situation in the US is more stable. In terms of timing, we are well positioned."

From 1 January 2026, leadership of the group will pass to Luke Miels, current chief commercial officer, who will inherit the same challenge as Walmsley: to convince investors that the pipeline of new drugs can generate over £40 billion ($53 billion) in revenues by 2031.

Unlike rival AstraZeneca, Gsk has also not yet signed an agreement with the US administration that would protect it from new regulatory or tariff measures in exchange for price cuts.

Growth driven by specialised drugs

Gsk's portfolio of specialised therapies - which includes drugs for HIV, oncology and immunology for diseases such as lupus - is set to remain the main driver of growth in the coming years.

In oncology, the group maintains a more optimistic outlook than analysts on Blenrep. The recent FDA approval of Blenrep as a third-line treatment for multiple myeloma - and not second-line, as expected - accompanied by a boxed warning for ocular toxicity and the mandatory REMS safety programme, has raised doubts about the drug's true commercial prospects. Gsk, however, has estimated a peak potential of more than £3 billion for Blenrep. According to Walmsley, the key to Blenrep's success is that the treatment is available in the outpatient setting, where around 70 per cent of patients are. "It is a 30-minute infusion, administered five to eight times a year," the ceo explained to reporters.