Trump: Iran ceasefire is very weak, 1% chance of holding

"Many people ask, 'do you have a plan?' Of course I have a plan, and it's the best plan ever." US President Donald Trump said this, responding in the Oval Office to a question on Iran in the aftermath of Tehran's counterproposal, which the tycoon described as "unacceptable".

US President Donald Trump said he is considering reinstating Operation 'Project Freedom' in Hormuz, which was suspended a few days after it began, but this time with a 'broader' scope than simply escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Fox News citing a telephone interview with the tycoon. Trump added that he had not yet made a final decision on whether to resume the project.

Oman's Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr al-Busaidi met with the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organisation (Imo), Arsenio Dominguez, to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. "We discussed the maritime issue in the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of respect for international law and sovereignty over territorial waters," al-Busaidi wrote on his X profile.

"It is urgent to implement a humanitarian initiative to release the ships in the Gulf, safely and in cooperation with the riparian states," he concluded.

Ahead of Donald Trump's visit to China this week, Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, Iran's ambassador to China, wrote on X that Iran is ready to support Xi's four-point plan for the Gulf. "The Islamic Republic of Iran has announced its readiness to support the People's Republic of China's President's four-point plan aimed at establishing stable security and shared development in the Persian Gulf region, an issue that was also stressed during the meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers," he wrote.

Oman's Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi met with the Secretary General of the International Maritime Organisation (Imo), Arsenio Dominguez, to discuss the right to free navigation in the region and the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Muscat Foreign Ministry, Al-Busaidi reiterated the need to respect international law and the law of the sea, 'as well as efforts to address them through friendly and peaceful means, in cooperation with all parties concerned'. In another post on X, Al-Busaidi stated that there is 'an urgent need to promote a humanitarian initiative to free the ships in the Gulf, safely and in cooperation with the riparian states'.

"It is one thing to bring the ships closer and quite another to direct them directly towards Hormuz. In the latter case, a new mission would have to be approved first, with a truce, then a legal framework and finally parliamentary authorisation. It is another matter to bring the ships closer together: it would not be a Hormuz mission, but another type of mission that would take place within other missions. In this sense, a number of hypotheses have been put forward to me by the General Staff, among them Djibouti. In any case, we will discuss it with Parliament from Wednesday'. These are the words of the Defence Minister, Guido Crosetto, to the Ansa agency.

The contours of a possible mission to Hormuz to re-establish freedom of navigation in the Strait, which the government would join only with a stabilised ceasefire, should in fact be clearer on Wednesday 13 May, when Crosetto and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani will appear before the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committees of the House and Senate 'on international initiatives to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz'.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a sharp increase in energy and fertiliser prices, so the strait must be fully reopened without restrictions, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a press conference in Nairobi today.

"We have seen a sharp increase in prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is why we consider it absolutely essential to reopen it fully and without restrictions. We have asked both sides to do so," said the UN Secretary-General. "This is the only way to bring energy and fertiliser prices back to pre-war levels, and this is vital for countries like Kenya," Guterres continued.

SAN PAOLO - A country in desperate straits, in the midst of a dramatic energy crisis, Cuba. And a friendly country with a significant oil production surplus, Brazil. A situation that could prefigure a virtuous agreement, perhaps punctuated by a chronogram of repayments and repayments. Thus an optimal context in which reciprocity unfolds just as economists theorise.

Too bad... 'Na vida real o problema è muito mais profundo'. So goes a Brazilian proverb, 'in real life the problem is much deeper'. The sophisticated financial mechanisms that govern Wall Street obstruct any agreement.

The Iranian press is again evoking a scenario of direct confrontation with the United States and Israel after the recent exchange of proposals on the nuclear dossier, rejected by President Donald Trump. The front pages of Tehran's main newspapers are today dominated by tones of military preparedness and messages of firmness against external pressure. The daily 'Kayhan', among the most influential and once considered to be aligned with the late Supreme Guide, Ali Khamenei, opens with the headline 'Missiles and drones of the Revolutionary Guard Corps are aimed at enemy ships and bases'. Even more explicit is 'Resalat', also from the principalist area, which writes: 'The American war machine cannot resist the powerful wave of the Iranian offensive in the Gulf'. The daily also contains an editorial evoking the hypothesis of 'retaliation for Beirut', referring to the alliance with Hezbollah. The newspaper 'Iran' emphasises in a headline that 'negotiation does not mean surrender' and that 'the ball is now in Washington's court', after Tehran sent its reply to the US via Pakistani intermediaries. Still markedly military tones emerge from the conservative daily 'Hamshahri Tehran', which opens with the theme of the 'Iranian war zone'. Finally, Jam-e Jam speaks of 'directives from the Commander', referring to new decisions attributed to the Supreme Guide, Mojtaba Khamenei, in view of a possible confrontation. 'The armed forces are awaiting the order to open fire,' it reads.

NEW DELHI - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lands in Tokyo tomorrow with a dual mandate. To put pressure on the fiscal and monetary side and to reassure on the political side. The meetings with Premier Sanae Takaichi and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama are confirmed. That with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda remains in doubt. But of the three - apart from being the least orthodox - it is also the least necessary, given that the two have known each other for a decade now and the pressure for an accommodating monetary policy comes from the government.

The tight schedule - on Wednesday the Treasury delegation will already be in Seoul to speak with Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng ahead of the summit between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping - will not allow Bessent to do much else. The Treasury Secretary is unlikely to make an illness of it. For him, this is his third trip to Japan in 10 months, after those of July and October, and his 55th since - in 1990, as an investor for George Soros' fund - he pitched his tents for three months at the Okura, the modernist jewel that, as fate would have it, stands right opposite the American embassy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is holding a security meeting in his office in Jerusalem, according to a report to the Times of Israel from the office of one of the participants. The meeting comes after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to his ceasefire proposal, and ahead of direct talks between Israel and Lebanon to be held in Washington later this week.

The Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, had a telephone conversation with his Saudi counterpart, Faisal bin Farhan. This was reported by the Tehran Foreign Ministry, stating in a brief note that the two discussed the latest developments in the ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran to resolve the crisis, conducted with Pakistani mediation.

"It is one thing to bring the ships closer and quite another to direct them directly towards Hormuz. In the latter case, a new mission would have to be approved first, with a truce, then a legal framework and finally parliamentary authorisation. It would be another matter to bring the ships closer together: it would not be a Hormuz mission, but another type of mission that would take place within other missions. In this sense, a number of hypotheses have been put forward to me by the General Staff, among them Djibouti. In any case, we will discuss it with Parliament from Wednesday'. Defence Minister Guido Crosetto told ANSA

The Strait of Hormuz moves 37% of world oil by sea and 28% of global LPG: tensions in the area have caused an 89% drop in daily transits in just a few months. This is what emerges from the new issue of the 'Port Infographics' report produced by Assoporti and Srm (a study centre belonging to the Intesa Sanpaolo group). Almost 1,000 ships are detained in the Gulf, with an estimated value of $23.7 billion worth of goods transported, with impacts on global supply chains

South Korea condemned the attack it suffered on 4 May in the Strait of Hormuz against a merchant ship operated by a Korean shipping company and said it intends to respond as soon as the source of the attack is identified. "We condemn this in the strongest terms," Wi Sung-lac, national security advisor to the South Korean president, told reporters, "through further investigation we will seek to identify the perpetrators of the attack, the exact type of projectile and its size." The Guardian reports.

"We are ready to play our part even afterwards, by sending minesweepers to guarantee freedom of navigation and thus de-mining the Strait," Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said today in Brussels, recalling that "on Wednesday we will be in Parliament with Minister Guido Crosetto to illustrate to the Foreign Affairs and Defence Committees of the House and Senate what the government's position is, what it intends to do and what it is doing, so that there can be constant confrontation with the House and Senate"

"China is fully aware that this was a necessary war. It was a war imposed on Iran. This was not an emergency incident, but a continuation of the unilateral actions of the US, which continues to violate international laws and regulations'. This was stated by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, as reported by Al Jazeera. "For China, stability and security in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Far East are of the highest priority, and the Chinese will take this opportunity to warn against any incalculable measures or illegal acts by the US, which would continue to undermine not only regional security and stability, but also global economic security," he added.

Iran has 'clearly stated to the Europeans that they must not give in to the arrogance of the US and Israel'. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said this, as reported by Al Jazeera. "They should refrain from making any move that would compromise their interests," he added, "as I have already said, this war is not only immoral, but also illegal. The US and Israel started their aggression against Iran; these European countries should not be fooled into getting involved in this." "Any intervention in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf would lead to further complications. On the contrary, it would only exacerbate prices; we hope that the countries of the world will act responsibly," Baghaei concluded

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The end of the Ayatollah regime in Tehran will result in the collapse 'like a scaffold' of the pro-Iranian groups in Yemen, the Houthis, of Hamas in Gaza and in Lebanon of Hezbollah. This was stated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with CBS. Responding to a question about the possibility of overthrowing the Iranian regime, Netanyahu replied: 'I think you cannot predict when it will happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No. But I can tell you that it should be done gradually and then it will collapse'.

A Vlcc (Very Large Crude Carrier) tanker carrying Iraqi crude oil crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, using a route designated by the Iranian armed forces. This was reported by the Tasnim News agency, affiliated with the Pasdaran. According to Tasnim, it is the Agios Fanourios which, after leaving the Strait, is now in the Gulf of Oman, bound for the Vietnamese port of Nghi Son.

The Iranian authorities released on bail Nobel Peace Prize 2023 laureate Narges Mohammadi, who was transferred to Tehran to receive medical treatment, her foundation announced today. After ten days of hospitalisation in Zanjan, northern Iran, where she was serving her sentence, she "was granted a suspended sentence in exchange for a substantial bail", her foundation said in a statement. Narges Mohammadi was transferred by ambulance to a hospital in Tehran 'to be treated by her medical team', it added.

Iran has executed a man convicted of spying for the Mossad and US intelligence services. This was reported by the Mizan news agency, the official organ of the Iranian judiciary, pointing out that Erfan Shakourzadeh had worked at a scientific organisation involved in satellite activities and had shared classified scientific information with foreign intelligence services. The human rights organisation Iran Human Rights Society added that Shakourzadeh, a 29-year-old aerospace engineering graduate, had been arrested last year and forced to confess.

Iranian state media reported that Tehran rejected the latest US proposal because it would have meant surrendering to what it called US President Donald Trump's 'excessive demands'. According to Iranian state media, the Iranian counterproposal emphasised the need for the US to pay compensation for war damages and reaffirmed Tehran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian broadcaster Press TV stated that the US proposal would entail Tehran's 'submission' to Trump's demands.

Oil prices jumped at the opening of trading today, shortly after US President Donald Trump announced his rejection of Tehran's response to Washington's proposal to end the war. Brent crude futures rose $3.21, or 3.17%, to $104.50 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (Wti) crude gained $3.06, or 3.21%, to $98.48 a barrel.

Paris and London will co-chair a meeting of defence ministers on the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. This was announced by the British government.

Iran has sent a several-page response to the latest US proposal to end the war, detailing its demands with several open points of divergence. This was reported by the WSJ, which, according to people familiar with the contents, said that the response does not satisfy the US request for preliminary commitments on the fate of Iran's nuclear programme and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, issues to be addressed during the next 30 days of negotiations. Instead, Tehran proposes an end to hostilities and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic.

Iran has rejected the US plan, according to Iranian media reports cited by Sky News. The plan "would have meant Tehran's submission to Trump's excessive demands," state-run Press TV reported. "The Iranian plan stresses the need for the US to pay war reparations and reaffirms Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. - it continues - Iran reiterated the need for an end to sanctions and the release of assets and property seized from the country." (

"I don't like their letter. It is inappropriate. I don't like their response." This is what US President Donald Trump said in a brief phone call with Axios, regarding Iran's response to the US memorandum proposal to end the war. Trump, however, refused to go into details about the content of the response itself. The US waited for days for the Iranian response that arrived on Sunday. The White House had hoped that Tehran's positions would show further progress towards an agreement, but Trump's initial reaction seemed to indicate the exact opposite.