Judicial guerrilla warfare, Trump's plan to contest the vote (if he loses)

Fifty hot counties. One hundred thousand volunteers and lawyers loyal to Donald Trump dispatched to guard voting transparency in the most contested ballot boxes. Dozens of legal challenges, at least 180, pre-filed. Militias that have resumed recruiting.

The spectre of political and legal guerrilla warfare, amid fears of even chaos and unrest, is looming over the US election, possibly at the mercy of a few ballots. Washington Post polls in swing states see a 57% majority worried about violent reactions from supporters of the Republican candidate if he loses. Only a minority of 31% fear the same from supporters of Democrat Kamala Harris.

The alarm is fuelled by the stances of the conservative populist leader, who continues to deny his 2020 defeat and denounces cheating coming in 2024 by the Democrats. "It is possible that he loses because they cheat," he said evoking without evidence a camel vote of illegal immigrants. A sign of the high-tension climate: his allusion to a 'little secret' to win devised with House Speaker Mike Johnson triggered chills, before Johnson denied conspiracies.

Trump, unlike in 2020, does not hold the levers of government for his crusade. But his allies are entrenched in a network of local election commissions and authorities, which may seek to restrain or obstruct the ballot. In Georgia restrictive rules on vote counting, sought by Republicans, have been declared unconstitutional but an appeal is still pending and other cases could drag on after the vote. The think tank Brookings Institution has identified 50 highly problematic constituencies, categorised by four levels of risk: of the eleven in Category 1, five are in crucial areas of Pennsylvania and three in Georgia. Nationwide, at least 35 officials who had rejected the results in 2020 now play significant roles in certifying the 5 November vote.

There is no shortage of more dramatic fears. To exorcise violent plans, law enforcement agencies have taken extraordinary measures: in Maricopa County, Arizona, drones will fly over the election centre and snipers will be deployed on the surrounding rooftops. Elsewhere, public meetings to approve the results have been replaced by indoor, protected events. Frank Figliuzzi, a former senior FBI official, warned Nbc that anti-government groups are mobilising with equal intensity on the eve of 6 January 2021 amid suspicions of at least local actions. A memorandum from the Department of Homeland Security reveals that "individuals are calling for violence in response to narratives of election fraud, targeting officials and populations perceived as threats to integrity". The upcoming 6 January, the date of the last ritual in parliament that will legitimise a new president, has already been classified as a 'special national security event'.