Guidance confirmation boosts Diasorin despite a quarter below estimates

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- The surprise confirmation of the 2026 guidance, despite the weak start to the year, gives wings to Diasorin at Piazza Affari.

Narrowing the lens on the accounts, the group closed Q1 2025 with revenue of EUR 287 million (-3% at constant exchange rates and -8% at current exchange rates), while net profit was 38 million, down 28% (13% as a percentage of revenue). Adjusted ebitda was EUR 90 million (-13% at constant exchange rates and -16% at current exchange rates). These numbers were below analysts' expectations, but allowed Diasorin to confirm its estimates for 2026 of revenue growth of between +5% and +6% and an adjusted ebitda margin of between 32%-33%.

Weighing on the performance in the first three months of the financial year, says Intermonte, were 'unfavourable factors of a transitory nature, such as a mild flu season, the reduction in QuantiFeron stockpiles due to the drop in demand for tuberculosis tests linked to immigration visas' in the US. However, justifying the confirmation of the 2026 guidance is 'a strong acceleration' expected 'in the second half of the year,' the investment bank continued, 'due to the authorisation of Plex Gi (a diagnostic system for the detection of gastrointestinal viruses), the increase in production of the Nes diagnostic platform, and the launch phase of Ltg, To better understand what the trajectory will be in the current year, according to analysts, we will have to look at Diasorin's new business plan, which will be unveiled on 20 May and should "incorporate a more conservative competitive environment and a realistic margin trajectory, consistent with ongoing investments in new product launches".

But the moves of competitors will also be crucial. Swiss Roche could in fact announce on Tuesday's Investor Day the launch 'in Europe of the test for latent tuberculosis, with direct implications for QuatiFeron'. In light of this, Intermonte confirms its 'Neutral' rating on the stock, raising the target price from EUR 73 to EUR 74.

For Deutsche Bank - which has a target price of EUR 63 for Diasorin - "Diasorin's first-quarter results were below expectations in terms of sales, but higher in terms of adjusted EBITDA, and showed a further deterioration in growth and profitability". However, despite the confirmation of the guidance, analysts remain 'sceptical about the expected recovery in the coming quarters, as well as the easing of several unfavourable factors'.