Air transport

Gulf airlines, fragile recovery as ticket prices fly

What to do if the carrier adds a surcharge after booking. In Europe, negotiations on passenger rights will end in June

by Mara Monti

7 May 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

There is an air of return to normalcy in the United Arab Emirates, where full air transport operations have been restored after months of disruption caused by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, marking an important step towards the resumption of regional travel and key hubs, including Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Flag carrier Emirates has resumed nearly 80 per cent of its operations from Dubai, according to flight-tracking website Flightradar24. The Dubai-based carrier reported a record full-year net profit and said its strong cash reserves will help it weather the crisis. Air Arabia and Etihad's volumes are around 60 per cent of February levels, while Qatar Airways and flydubai are at 51 per cent.

For travellers in transit from Dubai and Abu Dhabi, this is a return to smoother travel and a crucial transition for the entire regional aviation sector. These international airports had been operating under severe restrictions since February, when the conflict escalated and hundreds of flights were cancelled due to the closure of airspace. However, the recovery is likely to be fragile and suffered a setback last Monday, when drone attacks forced flights bound for the United Arab Emirates to divert to Muscat, Oman, or Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

During this period, major European airlines, from Lufthansa to Air France-KLM to British Airways, have sought to occupy the space left vacant by Gulf carriers, intercepting demand from travellers heading to Asia with non-stop flights without passing through the Gulf. A circumstance that has helped these carriers compensate for the increase in fuel prices: according to data collected by the Maiora Solutions platform, a company specialising in analysis, pricing and revenue management in the travel sector, flying from Europe to Asia non-stop at the Gulf hubs, as well as being considered safer under the circumstances, costs on average more than doing so via Dubai or Doha.

On the Paris-Mumbai and Frankfurt-New Delhi corridors, when choosing Istanbul, Zurich or Warsaw as hubs, prices ranged between EUR 665 and EUR 956, according to surveys between March and April 2026, and were higher than on Etihad and Qatar Airways flights on the same routes. On the London-Singapore and London-Bangkok routes, routing via the Gulf was consistently the cheapest available.

The Middle East is the area where geopolitics has left its clearest mark. At the end of March, coinciding with the escalation of the conflict in the Gulf, prices rose by an average of 57% in a single week, then stabilised at high levels: buying a ticket today costs about 5% more than in March, when fares had already risen.

The Gulf airlines defended themselves by offering some destinations, such as the Maldives and the Seychelles, at €300 one way departing from Dubai, while the most expensive routes for August include London-Heathrow-Amman Airport (€660) and London-Heathrow-Doha (€665), both in economy class, when in the past flights could be booked with low-cost airlines for no more than €200.

These increases in ticket prices, triggered by the geopolitical instability that has driven up the price of oil and aviation fuel, result in surcharges that some airlines are trying to charge passengers who have already purchased their tickets. According to Flightright, a company specialised in protecting travellers, the price agreed at the time of booking must be respected.

Route deviations, especially for flights with a stopover in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, are causing a lot of inconvenience. Despite this, passengers are advised not to cancel their tickets themselves, as they may lose the right to a full refund. If it is the airline that cancels the flight, the situation is much simpler from a legal point of view: the passenger is entitled to a full refund of the ticket and the airline has to do this within seven days. If, on the other hand, it is the customer who cancels, penalties may be triggered and disputes may arise as to the actual impact of the war on reimbursement rights.

Meanwhile, the negotiations of the Conciliation Committee, the body in charge of finding an agreement between the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union on the reform of the European regulation on air passenger rights, started on 20 April 2026. Negotiations must be closed by 15 June 2026 and the final text must then be approved by both European institutions.

According to Flightright, the main problem is that the proposal currently under discussion, first presented in 2013, risks significantly reducing travellers' protections. Among the most criticised points are the increase in the number of hours of delay needed to obtain compensation, the reduction of economic compensation and a narrower definition of 'exceptional circumstances', which would make it easier for companies to avoid refunds. This is why Flightright urges people to pay attention to the concrete impact these changes could have on European passengers.