Gulf countries risk running out of interceptor missile stocks. Anti-drone systems developed by Ukraine are being studied

To counter the Shaled UAE, Qatar and Bharein drones, they will look to the tactics promoted by Kiev, which consist of using low-cost (around $2,500) FPV (First Person View) drones capable of rapidly accelerating and physically colliding with enemy (kamikaze) drones in flight. Often piloted by operators with visors, or equipped with AI systems under development for automatic pursuit, these drones act like small interceptor fighters. Ukrainian technicians will be called upon to provide support and anti-drone technology. Why consider the example of Ukraine? Because Kiev is recognised as a world leader in drone warfare thanks to the shooting down of 80-90% of Russian drones.

Zelensky himself called Ukraine's expertise in Shahed interception 'largely irreplaceable' and offered to send specialists to the Gulf. As Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said last autumn: the only expert in the world on anti-drone capabilities right now is Ukraine, because it fights this threat every single day.

There is also another aspect to consider. The main exporters of military drones are China and Turkey, but drones can also be built domestically with relatively modest funding and expertise (the Gulf countries have considerable budgets at their disposal). At the same time, civil drones are potentially available to everyone, in large quantities. And they can be adapted, albeit within certain limits, to military operations.

On Monday 2 March, Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, small, long-range, single-use, rudimentary cruise missiles, continued to strike targets across the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates alone reported that from Saturday morning to Monday evening they were targeted by 174 Iranian ballistic missiles, eight cruise missiles, and 689 drones. The country, however, was not hit by any missiles and only 44 drones. Precisely thanks to the sophisticated American radars and interceptors. Bahrain reported the arrival of 70 ballistic missiles.

In recent days, drones have targeted US bases, oil infrastructure, and civilian buildings with a barrage of cruise missiles, drones, and precision-guided bombs. The US-made Patriot air defence missiles have largely succeeded in stopping Iranian Shahed and other ballistic missiles, with interception rates above 90%, according to the UAE. But using $4 million missiles to destroy $20-40,000 drones, which are not easy to detect, is a problem: cheap weapons can consume resources intended for much more complex threats. The result is that both Iran and the US could run out of weapons in a matter of days or weeks. Whoever can hold out the longest will gain a significant advantage.

Crucial to the outcome of the ongoing conflict, as the Wall Street Journal pointed out, is the amount of latest-generation US-made interceptors remaining in the Gulf countries' arsenals and the amount of missiles and attack drones in Iran's arsenals. Italia is currently considering whether to send a Samp-T system to the United Arab Emirates or Kuwait. According to the American newspaper, at the current rate of use, the time when the Gulf countries will run out of their stocks 'could come very soon. No more than another week, probably a couple of days at most,' explained Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the University of Oslo. The other part of the equation is the rate of destruction by Israeli and US forces of the projectiles and Tehran's launch capability.

Iran had in its arsenals at the time the US attack on Israel began, according to Western estimates, more than two thousand missiles capable of reaching the Gulf countries. The Emirates had, according to Hoffman, ordered less than a thousand interceptors, Kuwait about 500 and Bahrain less than a hundred. In defence of the Gulf countries there are also interceptors launched by the American military. But the Pentagon is also running out of Patriot missile stocks, partly due to Kiev's demands. Lockheed Martin produced 620 Pac 3 Mse last year and intends to increase its production to 2,000 per year within seven years.

After the Iranian drone attack against the British Akrotiri airbase in Cyprus, the UK announced its intention to bring in Ukrainian drone specialists to help its Gulf partners shoot down the Iranian Shahed. This is a significant move. As of February 2022, Ukraine has suffered over 57,000 Shahed attacks and has developed the world's most proven anti-drone doctrine, which includes $2,500 interceptor drones that hunt Shahed in the air.

The British Project Octopus programme, launched last November, aims to produce 2,000 interceptor drones per month in cooperation with Ukrainian manufacturers. Now collaboration is being extended to Gulf allies facing the exact same weapon system. There will be the contribution of Ukrainian F-16 pilots, who have successfully intercepted the Shahed launched daily over Ukrainian cities.

Iran has changed the mode of contemporary warfare. And it has done just that with the Shahed-136 drone. It is 3.5 metres long and has a wingspan of 2.5 metres, an internal combustion engine and can fly over 2000 kilometres at low speed. It is very noisy. Its trajectory is predetermined, although it may have recently been remotely piloted in Ukraine. Equipped with an explosive warhead of only 50 kilos and a pre-programmed guidance system based on GPS, the drone can be launched in swarms and directed at targets such as power plants, munitions depots, and strategic infrastructure. Once the target is identified, the drone launches at it, causing significant damage at a much lower cost than a cruise missile. The cost of production is estimated at between $20,000 and $50,000.

A long-range system, cheap and accurate enough that proved decisive in the conflict in Ukraine, both in the first phase when Moscow started to import it from Tehran and from the autumn of 2022 to use it against Ukrainian cities, and later, with the investment of two billion dollars to open a plant in Russia in Yelabuga, on the Volga, for the licensed production of the Geran-2, as the local version was called, and also in shaping the response of Kiev, which invented the layered air defence system that would now serve the Gulf countries targeted by Iran. The circle closes. Or so it should.