Looking ahead

The crisis in the Gulf shakes up mortgages. Now the variable rate is at a turning point

Eyes on the trend in the cost of instalments, which may become less sustainable as inflation returns, having risen in April. The fixed-rate offer was less affected by the global economy

by Marco Barlassina

5 May 2026

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

There is no perfect storm on the horizon yet, but the waters are starting to churn for those who will have to buy a house in the coming months. The latest available ABI data, referring to March, record a drop in average mortgage rates, but market indications point in the opposite direction due to the crisis in the Persian Gulf. If the stalemate in Hormuz were to last, it could rekindle inflation (estimated by Istat already at +1.2% in April) and thus condition the choices of the ECB, which not by chance, despite unchanged rates, at last Thursday's meeting did not exclude future rises. With immediate upward effects also on the rates used to calculate mortgage instalments, especially at variable rates, pegged to Euribor and thus to the cost of short-term money among banks.

"The drop in mortgage rates recorded by Abi in March largely reflects the drop in the Irs observed in February 2026 with respect to the previous two months, which was transferred with the usual lagon banks' commercial offers. Already since March, however, the picture has changed: the Iranian crisis, soaring oil prices, and renewed inflationary expectations have reversed the trend of market rates," emphasises Guido Bertolino, head of Business Development at MutuiSupermarket. MutuiOnline data also confirm the trend: the average Tan for 20 and 30-year mortgages dropped to 3.28% in March and the variable to 2.55%, but updates as at 27 April show a slight rise to levels similar to those of February: 3.37% for the fixed and 2.62% for the variable.

The fear of a scenario similar to that of the early years of the war in Ukraine, when the inflationary surge resulted in a rapid increase in instalments, is thus becoming more prevalent among traders. "We all remember the drama of those who had an adjustable rate mortgage when the conflict in Ukraine broke out, with people finding their rate doubled within a year, especially for longer mortgages. There was an inflationary surge then too, with the difference that in the current case gas prices are much lower," explains Roberto Anedda, head of Financial Market Analysis at Credipass. Luca Dondi Dall'Orologio, managing director of Patrigest, also warns of possible similarities: 'There are similarities because the energy shock is similar, with the prospect of a central bank solely driven by data and an adjustment already underway'.

L’ANDAMENTO NEGLI ULTIMI 25 ANNI

Euribor a 3 mesi (tassi variabili) e Irs a 20 anni (tassi fissi). Dati in percentuale

IL DETTAGLIO

'At present, however, one can only speak of a possible turning point,' adds Anedda, warning that 'depending on how the geopolitical situation evolves, the effects could be more severe'.

Better security?

In this context, the choice between fixed and variable returns central. "Those who have to take out a mortgage today are faced with variable instalments that are around 6.5 per cent lower than the corresponding fixed-rate instalments: for a 30-year EUR 150,000 mortgage for the purchase of a class G property, the best variable-rate offers are around EUR 590 per month, compared to around EUR 632 for the best fixed-rate solutions. However, taking into account the increases in the cost of money expected by the markets today, this advantage of the variable rate is destined to almost completely disappear by the end of the year," explain MutuiSupermarket.

As far as fixed rates are concerned, "at the moment the offer has been less affected by the conflict and banks continue to focus on this solution", observes Ivano Cresto, managing partner of Facile.it, while warning that a return of inflation could also be reflected on fixed rates through the bond market. A context in which, according to Luca Dondi, "it makes sense to privilege security", by locking in now conditions that on fixed rates are contained in terms of historical average.

Impact estimates

The effect of any increase is far from negligible. In MutuiSupermarket's simulations, "for every 0.25 per cent rise in the cost of money, a borrower with a variable-rate mortgage and a residual debt of EUR 150,000 will see his or her instalment increase by around EUR 20. In the scenario currently priced by the markets - two rises by the end of 2026 and a third in the first part of 2027 with stabilisation for the following two years - the cumulative aggravation would therefore be in the order of 60 euro per month, or about 720 euro per year".

Not too different estimates are those shared by Cresto of Facile.it with reference to the average mortgage: "From the end of February to today the index (Euribor, ed.) has risen by about 15 basis points, with peaks of +25 basis points (3-month Euribor). These movements translate, for a standard mortgage (EUR 126,000 to be repaid over 25 years covering 70 per cent of the value of the property) into an increase of about EUR 5 in the April instalment and a further EUR 5 in the May instalment,' he says. And he adds: 'Analysing the Euribor futures, it turns out that the index could rise in the coming months, pushing the standard mortgage instalment from the current EUR 620 to EUR 642 by the beginning of the second half of the year and closing at around EUR 660 by the end of the year'.

LE MIGLIORI CONDIZIONI DISPONIBILI

Mutuo prima casa di 120.000 € per valore immobile di 150.000 €. Dati variabili in base alle caratteristiche del richiedente e dell’immobile

Stretching the horizon, MutuiOnline estimates that an increase of 25 basis points would bring the average Tan to 2.87%, with an additional EUR 4,400 over the entire term of the mortgage. In the event of two increases by the end of the year, the Tan would reach about 3.12%, with over EUR 8,900 of additional expenditure over the 20-year period.

Assessing Sustainability

In a volatile phase, the main criterion remains sustainability: do not only look at the starting rate, but assess how your family budget will hold up in the face of possible stress due to the rising cost of money. "The instalment should not exceed 30% of net monthly income," points out Alessio Santarelli, managing director of MutuiOnline: "The variable is suitable for those who have sufficient income margins to absorb any increases. The fixed rate guarantees an unchanging instalment over time - and if rates fall, the subrogation allows you to renegotiate without costs".

Looking ahead, the differential between fixed and variable may narrow, leading to a substantial balance between the two options. But for most families, who take out long-term mortgages, the risk is not so much the initial level of the instalment as its evolution over time. 'The point, therefore,' Anedda concludes, 'is not so much to choose the lowest rate today, but rather that which you are able to sustain tomorrow.