Towards the elections

Harris and Trump hunting for decisive votes among Latinos and African-Americans

by Luca Veronese

Kamala Harris. (AFP)

3' min read

3' min read

From our correspondent

A few tens of thousands of votes will decide who will be the next President of the United States. And the votes that will make the difference could be those of Latinos, of voters with Hispanic origins: even in disputed western states like Arizona and Nevada, even in the largest swing state, Pennsylvania. While African-Americans could hand victory to Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump in a state like Wisconsin, also potentially decisive for the White House.

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Yesterday Trump was warmly welcomed by Latino business leaders in Doral, near Miami. 'I am the only candidate who can bring prosperity back to America,' the former president repeated with a simple and direct message that found great response from a friendly, rightward-shifted audience. In his long speech, he repeatedly insulted Harris: 'We don't need,' he said, 'another person with such a limited IQ in the White House'. And he relaunched the baseless propaganda against Democrats who 'have filled the country with dangerous immigrants and terrorists'. But Trump also called out, from Florida, to Hispanics across the country, pointing to traditional family values and even more so to economic aspects: 'With me your wages were better, you had a better job and could afford a good home, then,' he said, 'Joe Biden's administration, with high inflation, destroyed it all.

There are more than 36 million potential Latino voters, or 15% of the total eligible voters. And the Republican campaign is trying to win space in this community, which in the United States has traditionally been closer to the Democrats, but is growing rapidly and could change orientation, especially in its younger part.

Ethnicity is mixed, of course, with political ideas, social issues, and the economic difficulties of the people. From Washington, in a long interview aired on Telemundo, Vice-President Harris proposed an economic programme focused on the needs of the Latino community. There are three main measures to 'stand by those who want to work and do business,' Harris said: support for regular apprenticeships to double current contracts to 1.2 million in four years; easier access to some public jobs, with the elimination of the graduation requirement; and subsidised loans for small businesses. "We are very confident these policies can have a significant impact, as they did in the focus groups we analysed," explains Matt Barreto, a polling expert for the Harris campaign. "These are measures that speak specifically to Latino men who want to succeed and achieve the American dream."

Somewhat surprisingly, Kamala Harris - the first black woman to have the chance to become president - is having a hard time in the African-American community, which is usually overwhelmingly aligned with the Democrats: an analysis by the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, an American civil rights organisation, shows that more than a quarter of African-American men, under 50 years of age, now have an opinion in favour of the Republican candidate.

The black community counts more than 34 million voters, about 14% of Americans eligible to vote. And it could be decisive for winning in Wisconsin, a swing state that together with Michigan and Pennsylvania makes up the 'blue wall', the barrier that also allowed Joe Biden to win against Trump in 2020. "The Democrats are paying close attention to the black vote in Wisconsin, they have realised that they can't consider black votes as bought. They know they have to make an extra effort,' points out Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson.

Trump is leveraging economic hardship. The unemployment rate for blacks in Wisconsin has reached 5.6 per cent: almost double the state's overall rate. While after years of price hikes, inflation, although the overall national figure has fallen to 2%, remains a problem for families. 'The black community in Milwaukee is suffering,' says Janiyah Thomas, Black Media Director for the Trump campaign.

Yesterday, Barack Obama arrived in Wisconsin to lend a hand to Kamala Harris. His goal might just be to improve turnout: only 58% of adults voted in Milwaukee's majority-black districts in 2020, down twenty points from 77% in 2012, when Obama himself was re-elected.

With two weeks to go before 5 November, pundits have already described this as the closest election in fifty years. A few thousand votes - maybe of Latinos, maybe of blacks - will make the difference.

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