Demographic winter and an ageing country

Increasingly, political and moral philosophy is concerned with people's life cycles. If we think about demography, the reason for this is quite obvious. If demography reproduces acceptable balances over time, in reality - without neglecting its importance - no great ethical-political question emerges. To put it bluntly, if the births are equal to the deaths and the number of those starting work equals the number of those retiring, then the system is under control. If, on the other hand, we have abrupt changes in the composition of the population, things change. The so-called 'demographic winter', which characterises Italy's demographic trend, is a clear example of this. In cases of this kind, which do not only affect Italia but also, for some time now, Japan and, little by little, the entire advanced industrial world, the progressive ageing of the population generates considerable imbalances in such fundamental sectors of public life as health and social security. It follows that the entire theoretical model of distributive justice is called into question, also from an ethical-political point of view.

Something similar happens when we consider the interests of future generations, which is particularly the case when we reflect on environmental degradation, climate change, and in general the harmful consequences that the behaviour of today's humans may have for their descendants. By now, it is fairly accepted that we have a sustainability obligation towards future generations, which, roughly speaking, consists in not leaving them the planet in a worse condition than we found it. This obligation, however, clashes with a non-reciprocity clause: obligations of justice in a society such as ours are often made to depend on the fact that we are, after all, in the same boat and that there is therefore a basic reciprocity at their origin. Now, you don't need Groucho Marx to realise that posterity hasn't done much for us..

Two recent books (beginning 2026) deal with the ethical-political aspects of these issues. The first, entitled 'An Ageing Country', is a book by various authors -edited by Enrico Biale, Carlo Burelli and Anna Elisabetta Galeotti for the publisher Carocci- and its main task is to discuss, as the sub-title states, 'the consequences of demographic change' especially from the perspective of political philosophy (but not only, as we shall see). The second, entitled Future Generations, is a monograph by Simone Pollo, who is professor of Moral Philosophy at the Sapienza University of Rome, and is published by Laterza. It deals with ethics in the Anthropocene.

'An Ageing Country' is a book with three notable merits. The first consists in its exhibited interdisciplinarity, which, on topics such as this, is not a luxury but a necessity. In fact, it includes contributions from research areas that come not only from biology and medicine, but also from philosophy, economics and sociology. The second looks at the fact that in the book the theoretical and normative contents are accompanied by great attention to empirical research. The book takes its cue from the project an Ageing Society, an extended partnership funded by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (pnrr). The project in question lives within the framework of Mission 4 'Education and research, component 2 'From research to enterprise', and is coordinated by the National Research Council (cnr) led by the University of Florence, involving 27 partners including universities, research bodies, enterprises and third sector organisations, for a total of about 350 researchers. The third merit, finally, consists - in my opinion - in the opening essay, written by Elisabetta Galeotti, which constitutes essential reading for anyone interested in the relationship between the demographic crisis and contemporary political philosophy. To appreciate it, one has to start from the central idea, which, assuming the great demographic changes underway, advocates a more inclusive and less age-discriminating society.

All the essays in 'An Ageing Country' assume that the conjunction of increasing longevity and decreasing fertility has devastating effects on social balances. Galeotti shows how this fact has important consequences from the perspective of political philosophy. To do so, he starts with the question: To assess justice between generations, should we compare the young with the old or, instead, the cohorts of baby boomers with generation z? Recent political philosophy based on the concept of distributive justice focuses on the second option. As a rule, it has been argued that justice cannot be based on the benefits/resources that young and old receive at a certain point in time, but that it should refer to what people receive throughout their lives. This perspective seems to make it permissible to have alternating periods of abundance and poverty and deprivation throughout life, as long as the total amount of benefits received throughout life is equal to that of others. But a childhood in which one is abused and an old age in which one is left alone are not compatible with a general concept of fairness. That is why we have to compare age classes (the first option above).