Heat effect: 14.5 million more deaths by 2050, here's why climate and health are now inseparable

Climate change is becoming a major threat to global health and a disruptive economic factor. This is not an abstract hypothesis: the numbers in the new report by the Boston Consulting Group (Bcg) and the World Economic Forum (Wef) show a near future marked by 14.5 million additional deaths by 2050 and $12.5 trillion in economic losses. But more striking than the data is the interpretation given by Alessandra Catozzella and Lorenzo Fantini, managing director and partner of Bcg, who explain how the 'climate and health' pair is already transforming healthcare systems, businesses, insurance models and public policies.

'The health impact is much more extensive than perceived,' says Catozzella. 'Over the past 20 years, heat-related deaths in Europe have increased by 30 per cent. And last summer, in just twelve European cities, heat-related mortality tripled compared to expectations'. It is a phenomenon that does not only affect the elderly: according to data, 2.4 billion workers are exposed to direct heat-related risks and more than 23 million accidents per year are attributable to excessive heat. "And we're not just talking about heat stress," he adds. "Cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalisations are on the rise, vector-borne diseases are on the rise, and air pollution causes around 7 million deaths a year.

For Fantini, however, the heart of the problem is economic: 'Climate is a huge business problem. It affects individuals, but businesses as well. The most exposed sectors - agriculture, food, construction - account for a significant share of Italian GDP. When temperatures exceed certain thresholds, construction sites come to a halt, productivity plummets, supply chains come to a halt. And events that we used to consider 'once every 500 years' are becoming 'once every 50''. A change that many companies have underestimated: 'For years they focused on asset protection. Now they are realising that the real risk is about people".

Paying the highest price are health systems. The report estimates up to USD 1.1 trillion in additional costs by 2050. 'Many hospitals are not designed to cope with summers like the ones we will experience in the next ten years,' Catozzella observes, 'Hospital admissions are increasing and at the same time the vulnerability of facilities is growing. In the poorest countries, the difficulties are even greater: the heat compromises the distribution of vaccines, the cold chain and the ability of systems to react to expanding epidemics such as dengue and malaria. Fantini cites an emblematic case: 'In New Delhi two thirds of the workers are paid by the day. When pollution exceeds a certain threshold, they cannot work. That is why a parametric policy was created that automatically pays the lost wages. No forms, no delays, just immediate protection'. It is an example of how insurance innovation and climate can intertwine. 'It is a model that could find applications in Europe, especially in the most vulnerable sectors'.

In Italy, meanwhile, the manufacturing world is starting to react. 'Large companies are mature about the physical risk to assets,' Fantini explains, 'They are now realising that the vulnerability of people must be integrated into strategies. We have cases of large groups that have to reorganise shifts, increase redundancies in critical roles or review the timing of construction sites. It is a direct cost on Ebitda'. Some companies are experimenting with sensors to monitor workers' exposure to heat or pollution and intervene in real time: 'These are simple interventions, but they can prevent accidents and reduce health costs,' Catozzella emphasises. Some Italian regions are also moving in an innovative way. 'We are seeing the introduction of predictive models that estimate emergency room accesses based on temperature, CO₂ and air quality,' Catozzella explains. 'These models explain about 70 per cent of the variability of accesses. It means that we can allocate staff and resources much more efficiently'. This is where artificial intelligence comes in, seen by both experts as a decisive accelerator. 'AI breaks down barriers of cost and complexity,' says Fantini, 'It allows us to analyse climate, health and behavioural data and provide personalised prevention. Insurers can build more sophisticated pricing models, companies can understand how to protect their workers, and healthcare systems can anticipate peak demand."