Heat pumps, residential market in decline

The residential sector falls, affected by the end of the superbonus and mechanisms such as credit assignment and invoice discounting. But, at the same time, the commercial sector is travelling fast thanks to Pnrr. At Heat Pump Technologies yesterday in Milan, Assoclima, the association representing manufacturers of summer and winter air-conditioning systems, heat pumps in the lead, presented the results of its 2024 survey. The total value of the national market exceeded 2.5 billion euro, down 5% compared to 2023. The splitting of the market into two is, however, the most significant element.

The numbers, in fact, say that without hybrid appliances (heat pump + boiler, controlled by a single control unit) and small heat pumps, under 17 kW, the national turnover would be growing. In other words, it is certain residential-related items that are suffering the most. Hybrid systems (survey carried out, in this case, in cooperation with Assotermica) drop by almost 69 per cent in value, heat pumps for domestic hot water production lose more than 25 per cent. These are two key technologies, with a view to the coming years, for achieving the objectives set by the Green House Directive. For both, political incentive choices will be essential.

Looking at the performance of large air/water heat pumps, above 100 kW, on the other hand, we see very different and very positive figures: those between 500 and 700 kW, for example, are up 61 per cent, while those between 200 and 350 kW are up 23 per cent. These figures testify to the resilience of the commercial sector. For the sake of completeness, it should be noted that air-to-air heat pumps are doing well: mono and multi-split, which are worth about half the market, are growing by 3.3 per cent. Positive numbers that, in this case, also concern the residential sector.

Maurizio Marchesini, president of Assoclima, analyses the situation as follows: 'In 2024 the commercial sector benefited from the Pnrr, the positive effects of which will continue in 2025. In contrast, the residential sector performed worst, largely due to the speculative bubble of 2022, generated by economic and geopolitical factors and amplified in Italy by the 110% Superbonus. This led to a sharp drop in heat pump sales in 2023 and 2024, partly due to accumulated stocks in the supply chain. Despite the drop in 2024, 40 per cent of companies in the sector still plan to increase production capacity by more than 30 per cent by 2027'.