The word from the manager: Columbia Threadneedle

'Here are the best European titles'

"The most attractive companies are Prysmian, Asml and Sap. Also of interest are Howdens, a British kitchen manufacturer, and, among luxury brands, Lvmh'

(Adobe Stock)

3' min read

3' min read

There will be no major changes of course in the financial markets in the coming months. The US uncertainty will remain for a while yet because the elections are still some way off, while from an operational point of view it makes sense to look carefully at the European market, especially in the large cap segment. Ann Steele, manager of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, explains this in detail

After the elections in the UK and France do you think it is likely to expect a change in the European stock market scenario in the coming months?

The Labour victory in the UK was not a cause for concern for markets, as the incoming government had already signed up to the fiscal rules currently in place. We therefore do not expect any significant impact on growth prospects, but we do expect investors to react well to the new political stability, with a possible revaluation of UK equities currently at a discount. The elections in France, on the other hand, generated a shock in European markets after the first round, which faded once it became clear that the far-right would not win an absolute majority. However, until the negotiations for the new government are concluded, the risk premium for French equities will be higher, which the markets have already priced in.

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Are you planning to change your wallets in the run-up to the US elections, and especially after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump?

Not at the moment. The tragic attack on the former US president itself has no direct impact on our investment strategies, but is part of the market volatility of election periods.

Which sectors are you most exposed to at the moment?

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We are currently overweight in industrials, consumption, discretionary goods, technology and communications, and underweight in consumer staples, real estate, energy, healthcare and utilities.

And what kind of advice would you give to those who want to take exposure to the European stock markets today?

Pay attention to stock picking in your portfolio because as interest rates fall and inflation moderates, markets will start to widen and this will prove to be an advantage in stock picking across all market segments.

But do you focus more on the medium-small business segment or do you prefer to target larger companies?

Recently, opportunities have focused more on large capitalisation companies with international earnings, and we still tend to invest the portfolio mainly in large and mega caps. It is possible that, with a change in the cycle, opportunities may be found further down the market capitalisation scale, but we are not there yet.

What are the prospects for small caps?

Small caps after Covid have had a difficult time, but with falling interest rates the situation may change; as seen in the past, six months after the start of the rate drop small caps tend to experience a change in the cycle.

IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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You invest in it?

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Historically, we have invested up to about 15% in mid and small caps.

What do you expect from the next ECB meetings?

After a first cut in June, we expect two more before the end of the year. But we cannot look at the European central bank's next moves without taking into account what the US Federal Reserve might do after the summer.

And what do you think will happen?

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At the moment we expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September, November and December; while from the Bank of England we are expecting a first cut in August or September.

I COMPARABLES

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Which companies do you find the most interesting?

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European equities today offer a wide range of stocks that will continue to perform well. Among the names we like is Prysmian, a manufacturer of energy and telecommunication cables, for which we expect sustained demand in the coming years given the growing number of data centres globally. The company is also improving its operational efficiency through automation and electrification of its production facilities. There are many other interesting names in the technology sector, including the semiconductor companies Asml and Asmi and the German software company Sap. Another interesting company is Howdens, a British kitchen manufacturer, which is able to convert 80 per cent of its contacts from specialist builders into sales when renovating or building a house. This very entrepreneurial business model has allowed the company to gain a large market share in recent years and, although the stock is not particularly cheap, we believe that the company will continue to grow, helped by the housing targets announced by the new Labour government.Finally, if we look at the purchasing power of European and Asian consumers, some luxury goods companies are attractive today; among them Lvmh has an excellent management team and, after a period of weakness post-Covid, is returning to growth with an incredibly attractive valuation in the long run.

IL CONFRONTO

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