High-end design, the market rebounds after the 2024 downturn
Bain & Company: the market dropped globally by 2% in 2024, but is set to grow by 5-7% per year until 2030, driven by non-EU countries. Opportunities for Italian companies, leaders in the sector
3' min read
3' min read
A normalisation after the sales peaks reached in 2022. The downturn in the high-end design market - which in 2024 marked a global -2% compared to 2023, at constant rates, standing at €46 billion - should not alarm Italian companies, which are absolute protagonists of this market with a 25-30% share, according to Claudia D'Arpizio, senior partner and global head of fashion and luxury at Bain & Company.
Growth forecast to 2030
.Firstly, because this is only a physiological decline, after the strong growth of the post Covid-19 period, which saw the global luxury furniture market grow to 48 billion in 2022. Secondly, because the outlook remains very positive, with an average annual increase that Bain estimates at between 5% and 7% until 2030, when the sector could reach EUR 65-75 billion, again globally.
Granted that the downturn remains within the average of the luxury market in general (which lost between 1% and 3% of its value in 2024, settling at EUR 1,478 billion), design still has great potential to express and presents characteristics that point to a rapid recovery. "Compared to the other areas of luxury, high-end design is experiencing a stabilisation phase, but with remarkable resilience," observes D'Arpizio. "While other sectors, such as luxury cars and art, are showing more marked contractions, furniture is defending itself well, even if it is not registering the explosive performance of experiential segments such as gourmet restaurants, luxury cruises or private jets.
Exposure to non-EU markets
.Paradoxically, at this stage furnishing indirectly benefits from what, at other times, has been one of its limitations, i.e. its lower exposure to non-European markets compared, for example, to fashion, which has been particularly affected by the slowdown in the Chinese market. If anything, adds D'Arpizio, high-end design has been weighed down by the slowdown in contract, which remains one of the main development assets for companies, but last year saw a fall compared to its peak in 2023, and the stop in real estate in Asia and the United States.
According to Bain's analysis, the recovery should start as early as this year and consolidate over the next five years. "This is a category that has not yet fully expressed its potential, so the prospects for growth are significant," confirms D'Arpizio. "Provided, however, that companies demonstrate a proactive approach to the market: Italian, but more generally European, manufacturers are still too focused on the continental market and instead the impulse will come mainly from Asia, the United States and the Middle East, as well as from large projects and the phenomena of strong urbanisation affecting some emerging countries.
