The Intesa Sanpaolo Report

Historical districts hold back The paths to recovery: other outlets and resilience

Downward performance for Brianza and Treviso. On the rise those of Murgia, Alto Adige, Pordenone and Bovolone

by Laura Cavestri

L’export dei distretti nel 2025 tiene meglio rispetto a quello dell’intero comparto (-0,3% sul 2024, contro il -1,3%) (Adobe Stock)

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

In the slalom between tariffs on imports (to the USA), maritime routes that are closing and reopening, and energy costs on a rollercoaster ride, the wood-furnishing districts are trying to resist the wind and the shocks, but exports paint a complex picture, from which it emerges that the greatest difficulties are concentrated among the 'standard bearers' of the districts, those that drive turnover - above all Brianza and Veneto (especially Trevigiano), while the upholstered furniture of Murgia and the wood-furnishing of Alto Adige and Bovolone resist (and sometimes grow up to double figures). This is the picture provided by the Report on Wood-Furnishing Districts, drawn up by the Intesa Sanpaolo Research Centre.

The market framework

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It is a polarised picture that of the industrial districts," the Report points out, "where the overall resilience of exports in 2025 (-0.3% compared to 2024, for a countervalue of 9 billion euro) is better than the export of the entire sector (-1.3%), but still slowing down. Those operating in the districts, in any case, are improving or at least mitigating their declines. The following have filed a good 2025: Furniture from Pordenone +7.7%, Upholstered Furniture from Murgia +8.9%, Wood Furniture from Alto Adige +10.1%, Style Furniture from Bovolone +20.6%. While a backward trend - albeit small - was recorded in the two largest furniture districts: Brianza (-1.8%) and Legno-Arredo di Treviso (-3.3%).

"Stefania Trenti, head of industry research at Intesa Sanpaolo, emphasises, "Our 'standard bearer' districts in the sector are those with the most significant turnovers, but also those with the strongest presence in the markets where tariffs have weighed most heavily, such as the US. Many companies from these districts have invested in that country, even in the face of a dollar that has depreciated and lower turnover flows, favouring a long-term vision, since the United States remains our second outlet market, with solid fundamentals and a strong capacity to spend on high-end design".

The overall resilience of district exports reflects the ability of Italian companies to diversify. District manufacturers of Italian-made furniture managed to increase sales in Germany (+1.9%, especially for the Pordenone and Alto Adige Furniture Districts), the United Kingdom (+7.9%, for Pordenone and Murgia) and Spain (+1.7%), despite the drop recorded in France (-5.6%). Among the emerging countries, the growth in exports to the United Arab Emirates (+5%, for the Pordenone Furniture and Upholstered Furniture Districts of Forlì) and the leap in sales to Turkey (+50.7%, especially for Bovolone Style Furniture) are worth mentioning.

The marked progress in Canada (+12.3%, especially for the Pordenone Furniture district, the Murgia upholstered furniture district and the Alto Adige Wood Furnishings district) contrasted with the contraction in the United States (-9.8%, with negative results in almost all the districts with the exception of the Murgia, +11.7% and Forlì, +17.4%).

The American market - the second largest trade outlet - was penalised by the exchange rate and uncertainties related to the Trump administration's trade policies, just as China - in seventh place among destinations - showed a drop of 1.7%, caused by difficulties in stimulating domestic demand.

 

Prospects

"At the moment," Trenti goes on to explain, "with the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a gradual normalisation of production and transport flows and the return of energy prices in the second half of 2026, we could see a vigorous recovery in the first half of the year. In any case, we expect demand for furniture from the tourism sector to remain strong. Furniture is not an energy intensive sector, but may be affected by indirect increases in production inputs (metals, glass, plastics) and transport costs".

The countries affected by the conflict in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Iran) account for 4.6% of 2025 exports, mainly through contracts,' adds Trenti. 'The need for an image relaunch and a boost to construction recovery could represent an opportunity.

"In 2025," explains Enza Di Vita, economist at Intesa Sanpaolo, "the share of Italia's furniture on international markets will be 4.1% for medium and low-end products, and will leap to 9.2% for high-end products, even touching 25% in the world of kitchens.

"Crucial", concludes Trenti, "will be to increase the diversification of outlet markets: India, Latin America, Southeast Asia. Lastly, furniture companies can count on good financial resources overall: according to estimates on a large sample, gross operating margins are still at historically high levels, equal to 10.3% of turnover 2024, with margins above pre-Covid even in 2026".

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