Housing, the market is dynamic but the social gap is growing

It is a dynamic market, where purchases and sales are growing, but also the social gap that makes access to housing more precarious for large sections of the population. Taking a snapshot of the state of the art is the 18th Housing 2025 Report, produced by Nomisma, which analyses the evolution of the residential market and the changes underway in housing behaviour and needs.

On the market front, Nomisma's preliminary forecast for the year 2025 estimates a number of purchases and sales of around 770,000 transactions, significantly higher than pre-pandemic volumes. Forecasts indicate substantial stability in the three-year period 2026-2028, with volumes that will remain high, albeit at a slower growth rate than in the year just ended. At the same time, there is a strong rebound in new mortgage lending in 2025, after the sharp decline in 2023. Despite the positive dynamics, the share of households accessing mortgages remains below the peak levels recorded in the post-pandemic period, confirming a persistent selectivity in access to credit. There has also been a marked rebound on the credit front, with an increase of +30.8% in the amount of new mortgages disbursed.

In this scenario, while the sector accelerates, for a growing number of households access to housing is becoming more complex. Only 35.8 per cent of households now consider their income adequate to cover essential expenses, while the proportion of those who consider it barely sufficient or inadequate is growing (18.5 per cent). The result is an increasingly pronounced gap between the vitality of the property market and the real economic capacity of Italian families, which makes the purchase of a home an increasingly difficult goal to achieve, partly because of the high purchase costs in many urban areas.

Financial fragility is accentuated: more than 1/4 of households say they are unable to save, while about 1/3 report a further reduction in their accumulation capacity compared to the previous year. The difficulties particularly affect those households most exposed to spending pressures, such as large families, middle-aged singles and the elderly living alone, widening inequalities and making the economic balance of large sections of the population more unstable.

The evidence gathered in the Report on Housing 2025 provides a snapshot of a residential market that is maintaining high levels of activity, but at the same time highlights a growing disconnect between market dynamics and the economic conditions of an increasingly large number of households. Housing continues to represent not only a priority need, but also a pillar of Italians' economic and asset security. "Housing affordability is decreasing, especially for younger households and those characterised by elements of fragility"໬ declares Chiara Pelizzoni, senior project manager of Nomisma's Real Estate Observatory.