The war in the Middle East

A glimmer of hope for Hormuz: Iran is negotiating, and there is a draft agreement

Washington: the agreement to reopen the Strait is expected within days. Tehran is open to the possibility of European countries clearing the waters of mines

from our correspondent in New York Luca Veronese

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Navi mercantili nello Stretto di Hormuz, viste da Musandam, in Oman REUTERS

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

There are no direct talks between the United States and Iran, but the channels of communication remain open and, with the mediation of Qatar, Pakistan and Oman, progress is being made – to the extent that an agreement, at least on the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, could be imminent. This was stated optimistically from Washington by Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio. It was confirmed by the spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Majed al-Ansari: ‘Washington and Tehran are, in any case, engaging with one another; diplomatic contacts are at a very advanced stage; draft texts are being exchanged, efforts are continuing with all parties to reach a short-term solution that would help us restart talks; an agreement of this kind,” said al-Ansari, “could be reached in the coming hours or days.”

Over the weekend, Trump had first announced and then called off ‘a massive attack on Iran’. On Monday, he had signalled the resumption of talks with Iran and granted the regime in Tehran ‘one last chance before decapitation’. But the ayatollahs had responded immediately to the US president’s umpteenth threat by denying any contact or negotiations, except for those concerning the Strait of Hormuz with Oman.

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And yet, confirming the progress made towards a broad agreement, rumours emerged from Tehran yesterday regarding the possible involvement of European countries in clearing mines from the Strait: a clear attempt to normalise shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and facilitate peace negotiations with the United States. In public, Iranian leaders have repeatedly stated that foreign forces will not be allowed to take part in mine-clearance operations but – according to sources within the regime interviewed by Bloomberg – in a number of confidential meetings over recent weeks, the ayatollahs and even the Pasdaran are said to have adopted a more conciliatory stance.

A senior Pakistani government official told Reuters: “There is a lot of activity behind the scenes; we are talking to both sides. Our sole objective at the moment is to ensure that both sides agree, at the very least, to begin talks.”

Yesterday, the US administration issued statements brimming with optimism, which helped to drive down the price of oil significantly. “We are in talks with the Iranians and I believe there is a chance we can reach an agreement, by Tuesday or Wednesday, to open the Strait and move towards a more normalised situation in this conflict,” said the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, referring to “a reopening with complete freedom of transit”, i.e. without tolls or checks by Iranian military forces.

The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, was only slightly more cautious in his remarks. “Progress has been made, but a final conclusion has not yet been reached. We hope this will happen very soon,” he said, pointing out that the agreement currently under discussion concerns exclusively the Strait of Hormuz, whilst “discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme will only be addressed at a later stage”. Rubio has thus, perhaps unwittingly, confirmed that after five months of war, not only has the regime in Tehran not been brought to its knees, but the US is forced to negotiate over Hormuz, setting aside – at least for the time being – the stated objective that led it to launch, together with Israel, Operation Epic Fury, namely ‘the annihilation of the Iranian nuclear threat’.

Tensions remain extremely high in the Strait of Hormuz too, and any potential agreement risks being extremely fragile. Iran has forcibly disrupted much of the traffic through the Strait, whilst the United States maintains its blockade on ships and ports linked to Iran. Meanwhile, the Yemeni Houthis, allies of Tehran, have also imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, further restricting routes for oil exports.

Tehran – according to an Iranian government source quoted by Reuters – is insisting on claiming “control over incoming maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oversight of outgoing traffic”. The source, who is involved in the talks, emphasised that this is “the general idea currently under discussion”, specifying that the outbound route would run between Iran and Oman, with authorisation to exit granted via Oman, subject to notification to Iran. ‘It is unlikely,’ the source said, ‘that Tehran will change its position.’

Meanwhile, doubts are growing about the sustainability of the US military campaign. According to three people familiar with the figures, the US military has used up most of its stockpile of high-precision long-range missiles during the conflict. The Iranian regime is aiming to wear down the opposition. ‘Their great advantage,’ explains Michael Knights of the Washington Institute, ‘is their ability to strike at countries in the region and the global economy.’

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