Houses, first quarter consolidates 2025 growth but slows down

In the first months of 2026, the housing market - on both the buying and selling and rental side - consolidates the growth trend already started in 2025, but slows down. Steps forward yes, but no more robust leaps. This is what can be read in Nomisma's 1st Observatory on the Real Estate Market, presented today at the UniCredit Tower Hall in Milan, which analyses the sector's situation at national level with an in-depth focus on 13 intermediate markets (Ancona, Bergamo, Brescia, Livorno, Messina, Modena, Novara, Parma, Perugia, Salerno Taranto, Trieste and Verona).
In comparison with a year ago - despite international tensions and signs of a risk of rising inflation that could restrict access to credit - prices are showing more solid dynamics, the gap between demand and supply values is narrowing, supply is being absorbed more quickly and demand is growing. "These are signs of an expansive cycle that is tending to consolidate, with a market that tends to be more dynamic and more liquid, and sustained demand," Nomisma emphasises.

However, if in 2025 sales on the residential market in Italia grew by +6.4% compared to the previous year, and even in the 13 intermediate markets grew by +6% overall, with more marked growth in the capital cities than in the rest of the province, in 2026, Nomisma estimates a slowdown in activity, with a more contained pace on the national market (+1.8% compared to 2025) and settling at around 780 thousand transactions. A level that, according to expectations, should also remain substantially stable in the following two years.

In any case, in 2025, the use of credit helped to support this expansion: in the three-year period 2023-2025, the share of purchases financed by mortgage rose from 40.1% in 2023 to 41.7% in 2024, reaching 45.9% in 2025, highlighting a strengthening of financial leverage to support demand. A picture supported by falling rates and more favourable demand as well as the continued good quality of banks' risk indicators. Over the course of 2025, the combination of relative stability in rates on new mortgages with a duration of over 10 years in the Euro Area and a moderate increase in Italia led to a slow but steady widening of the spread. In fact, the value of 32 basis points observed at the beginning of 2026 represents the highest peak in the last two years, highlighting the progressive misalignment between the evolution of Italian rates and those of the Euro Area.

In terms of residential property values, the annual change in prices in the first months of 2026 in the 13 intermediate markets confirms the upward trend. Prices of homes in excellent condition are up +2.3%, while those of units in good condition are up +2.7%, a dynamic that is still positive but slowing down over the three-year period 2023-2025. In the 13 intermediate markets monitored, the average time to sell a house is around 5 months, while the average discount during negotiations is 8.6%. This is a moderate level, consistent with a market that continues to show a good capacity to absorb supply.

According to Nomisma - in the absence of economic shocks - 2026 looks to be in continuity with the growth path already outlined in 2025. Demand remains strong, fuelled by a deep-rooted preference for home purchases, which continues to prevail even in the face of limited spending capacity. Despite more expensive mortgages and high buying and selling prices, households confirm a strong propensity to buy, still perceived as more convenient than renting.