Mind the Economy / Incentives 10

How to divide a panettone fairly with mechanism design

L’economista statunitense e premio Nobel Alvin E. Roth. Photo: Rolf Vennenbernd/dpa (Photo by ROLF VENNENBERND / DPA / dpa Picture-Alliance via AFP)

10' min read

10' min read

"The real test of our success," writes Nobel Prize-winning economist Alvin Roth, "will not only be our understanding of the general principles governing economic interactions, but also our ability to apply this knowledge to practical questions of microeconomic engineering. Let's deal with a practical microeconomic engineering question then. It's Christmas, time for presents and panettone. Those with young children know how much the serenity of the holidays can be undermined by arguments between children, many of which are generated precisely by presents and panettone. Imagine having to divide a panettone cake between your two children, Andrea and Beatrice. The obvious choice is to divide the cake in half, equally between the two. But your concept of fairness does not necessarily coincide with Andrea's or Beatrice's. The eldest may feel, for example, that he is entitled to a bigger slice by virtue of his age. Beatrice, on the other hand, has a bigger sweet tooth than Andrea and might demand a larger portion by virtue of her taste. The reasons why your fair division might not satisfy the two children are endless and you, of course, do not know them all. You would like to achieve a division that satisfies everyone, but you do not have enough information to do so because you do not know the reasons why the children would be satisfied. The question of economic engineering that confronts us, then, is this: is there a safe procedure to achieve a fair division, even if you do not have enough information to say what a fair division is? This, in a nutshell, is the problem underlying what economists call mechanism design, a discipline that today represents one of the most interesting frontiers of research at the intersection of economics, mathematics, law and politics. The answer that the theory of mechanism design provides to the question of panettone is fortunately affirmative and can guarantee, at least on this front, the possibility of preserving the serenity of the Christmas holidays. But on the details of this we will return later.

The so-called 'Hayek Hypothesis' refers to the idea originally put forward by the Austrian economist and philosopher Friedrich Von Hayek that markets function as aggregators of knowledge. The latter, in fact, is scattered and possessed only to a small extent by each of the participants in the market game. This is why, according to Hayek, any form of planned and centralised economy is doomed to failure. Even if the goals and preferences of each consumer and producer were known, a central authority simply would not have the knowledge of the causal links between these goals and the actions necessary to pursue them. It is only from the narrowness of our knowledge that it is possible, according to Hayek, to build institutions capable of fostering the functioning of a well-ordered society. The market is one such institution that, through the price mechanism, in an 'unintentional' manner generates a spontaneous order in which the preferences of individuals can be optimally satisfied. In this sense, the market is a specific example of a broader set of institutions that, a few decades after Hayek's work, would be called 'mechanisms' by Leonid Hurwicz. According to the Polish economist and future Nobel Prize winner, a 'mechanism' is a communication system in which participants exchange messages with each other or with a 'message centre' and in which a predetermined rule assigns a certain outcome for each combination of messages received. A very abstract concept, but for this reason generalisable to many different situations. In a traditional market, for example, messages are conveyed by prices which, together with the rule of equality between supply and demand, determine the allocation of goods and services. But the idea of 'mechanism' can also be applied to the analysis of situations in which the market, so to speak, 'fails'. One of these cases concerns the production of public goods, goods that have the characteristic of being 'non-excludable', such as, in Italy, health, schooling, property protection, but also the air we breathe, parks, roads, and many others. All these goods, precisely because they are 'non-excludable', cannot be produced and allocated efficiently through the market mechanism, as is the case with private goods. Public goods, in fact, do not have a price and therefore it is complicated to determine the optimal level of their production. One could proceed through a production mechanism based on a voluntary basis. In the case of blood for transfusions, one proceeds in this way. The public good 'blood' is produced through a voluntary contribution process. But this mechanism is not generalisable. In fact, it is shown that by its very nature this voluntary process is likely to be inefficient. This is why public goods are generally produced by the state and financed through taxation. But what is the optimal level of these goods? In the case of private goods, it is the interaction between supply and demand that meets this demand. And in the case of public goods? How many do we have to produce to satisfy the needs of citizens? Since they do not have a price, precisely because they are not market goods, answering this question is not easy. Of course, one could ask the citizens themselves how much they would be willing to pay to have an efficient public transport service or a justice system capable of guaranteeing swift and fair trials or, again, a healthcare system capable of promoting and protecting their health in a dignified manner. One could ask them, that is, to reveal the value that these goods have for them. But as Paul Samuelson shows, the answers we would get would all be systematically distorted. "It is, in fact, in every person's self-interest to give false signals, to pretend that they have less interest in a given collective activity than they actually do". This is because if it turned out that people placed a high value on these goods, governments would be induced to raise taxes in order to produce more of them. Citizens who would like to enjoy the goods but not bear the cost of producing them would be induced to send untrue signals. Samuelson came to a pessimistic conclusion. He was convinced that no mechanism existed that could effectively solve this problem.

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The path inaugurated by Leonid Hurwicz and subsequently trodden by many others, on the contrary, proved particularly fruitful in addressing and solving this and many other similar problems, giving rise to a whole new field of research that goes by the name of 'mechanism design theory', better known as 'mechanism design'.

Eric Maskin and Alvin Roth have defined 'mechanism design' as the engineering part of economics. Just as engineers use the laws of physics, chemistry, electronics and other disciplines to solve concrete problems, so mechanism theorists use game theory and social choice theory to design institutions to solve specific economic, political and social problems related to the allocation of some kind of resource.

From a logical point of view, 'mechanism design' is a kind of 'reverse engineering' that proceeds in stages: it starts with the definition of an objective to be achieved and the prediction of the behaviour that is expected to be observed according to certain rules; it then proceeds to evaluate the resource allocations - consumption, production, impact on the environment, individual satisfaction, etc. - that result from this behaviour. Finally, we search for the mechanism that, starting from these predictions, best guarantees the achievement of the objective. We would like, for example, customers and taxi drivers to be satisfied, the former with the service and the price paid and the latter with the profits made against the costs incurred. What should be expected? Given the information asymmetry between taxi driver and customer, the former will take advantage of the latter. Anticipating this, the taxi driver will struggle to find customers. Therein lies the market failure. How is it solved? This is where the 'mechanism' comes in: a set of rules capable of aligning the objectives of taxi drivers and customers, making the former act in the interest of the latter because, at this point, the former and the latter have the same interest: a mutually beneficial exchange.

One of the often forgotten dimensions of economic efficiency is the voluntariness of agents' actions. If I have to force the innkeeper to reveal the true quality of his wine through a mechanism of controls and sanctions, the result will be achieved but inefficiently. The bureaucratic apparatus that needs to be implemented will in fact be expensive and those costs will reduce the overall gains. It would be better to convince the proverbial innkeeper to reveal his information about the quality of the wine for sale in his tavern voluntarily. This was one of the first issues Hurwicz addressed in the 1970s. How to induce people who have no interest in doing so to reveal the information in their possession even if this could harm them? How to induce the innkeeper to declare that his wine is not the best on the market even if this fact may lead to a reduction in his earnings? How to induce citizens to reveal the true value they place on public goods if this may mean higher taxes? The central idea developed by Hurwicz, in this respect, is that of 'incentive-compatibility'. A mechanism is incentive-compatible when it is able to convince an agent to send a truthful signal, to reveal its private information, by virtue of the fact that, thanks to the mechanism, this is now in its best interest, regardless of what everyone else will do. More technically we can say that an incentive-compatible mechanism makes truthful disclosure of private information a dominant strategy. There is another prerequisite that, preliminarily, the mechanism must fulfil, namely that of being able to convince the agent to participate in the game. That is, a mechanism must also satisfy the so-called participtation-constraint. No consumer or producer, for example, would ever enter a market where only disadvantageous transactions are possible. No one would ever take a taxi, for example, if they were certain of being cheated every time.

The first, not particularly encouraging result from the analysis of this problem shows that in a standard exchange economy, there is no mechanism that satisfies the constraints and simultaneously produces optimal results from an efficiency point of view. The existence of private information, in other words, always precludes full efficiency. This is nothing but the fundamental and well-known message of information economics, its very raison d'être. Wherever information is distributed asymmetrically between parties, there will be inefficiency.

The awareness of the inescapable inefficiency resulting from information asymmetry represents the zero point from which mechanism design develops in an original manner. A first avenue concerns the exploration of alternative allocation processes to the exchange economy, while the second focuses on the possibility of developing less stringent choice criteria than the idea of 'dominance'.

A milestone in this process of development is represented in the first half of the 1970s by the demonstration of Gibbard's theorem by philosopher Allan Gibbard and its generalisation into the so-called 'relevation principle' obtained a decade later independently by several economists, including Roger Myerson, who will win the Nobel Prize for this work in 2007 together with Leonid Hurwicz and Eric Maskin.

The 'relevation principle' states that any rational balance of individual behaviour in any social institution must be equivalent to an incentive-compatible coordination plan. This means that an individual acting as a centralised mediator can design an incentive structure such that honesty and trustworthiness become the most win-win behaviour even in the presence of private information. Myerson describes the informal demonstration of this result this way: "Suppose we have a general coordination mechanism and an equilibrium involving rational individual strategies that prompt agents to report untruthful information and act opportunistically. We need to describe how a mediator would implement the equivalent incentive-compatible mediation plan in which honesty and trustworthiness are an equilibrium. Let us imagine that the mediator receives confidential and truthful information from each individual. At this point the mediator would first calculate the untrue information that self-interested players would have sent, then the opportunistic actions they would have taken, and finally recommend each player to act on these predictions. If an individual had an incentive to be dishonest or opportunistic, that is, to follow the mediator's advice, then he would also have an incentive to be dishonest or disobedient to himself. But in a rational equilibrium, no one can gain by lying to himself or disobeying his optimal strategy" ("Perspectives on Mechanism Design in Economic Theory", American Economic Review 98, pp. 586-603, 2008).

It may all seem rather abstract, but in reality the applications, as we will see in the coming weeks, are very concrete and of great impact on the lives of us all. Let us return, for example, to the case of the division of the panettone. An apparently marginal issue, but only for those who do not have young children. For those who do have them, however, a problem of the utmost importance. What is the 'mechanism' that can solve the problem of dividing the panettone? It is a simple but ingenious mechanism. "A typical feature of mechanism design," writes Eric Maskin. The solutions tend to be ingenious, but they are so simply ingenious that you wonder, after seeing them, why you didn't think of them sooner' ('Introduction to Mechanism Design and Implementation. Transnational Corporations Review 11, pp. 1-6, 2019). We summon Andrea and Beatrice in front of the panettone. We draw lots for one of them and have him or her cut the cake, establishing, however, that the other will choose the first slice. If he cuts Andrea he will choose Beatrice and vice versa. How do we know that this mechanism will work? Let's try to think about it for a moment. When Andrea (or Beatrice) cuts the cake, she has an incentive to make sure that each piece is the same size. Because if one piece is bigger, he knows that Beatrice will take it and he will have the smaller piece. So when he cuts the cake he will make sure that whichever piece Beatrice chooses, he will be happy with the one that remains. So Andrea will be happy and Beatrice will be happy because she got to choose her favourite piece first. Both will be happy even though no one could have known beforehand why they would be happy. This is typical of mechanism design. The one who designs the mechanism generally cannot know in advance which results will be considered optimal. You just want the cake to be divided fairly, without knowing what 'fair' means to the children and knowing that children are not interested in fairness. They are only interested in the biggest possible slice. The agents have their goals and the mechanism must be compatible with those goals. In other words, it must be "incentive compatible".

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