The moves of Brussels

How to react in the event of a failure to agree on tariffs: the dilemma shaking the EU

Consensus among the 27 for a quick understanding in principle, retaliation controversial. Even in the event of a quick agreement then, the unknown is whether it would suspendthe current US tariffs on certain sectors such as steel and aluminium.

from our correspondent Beda Romano

Il presidente degli Stati Uniti Donald Trump in un incontro durante il suo primo mandato con la presidente della Commissione europea Ursula von der Leyen

3' min read

3' min read

BRUSSELS - It is a fine ridge that the European Union is treading in its painful trade negotiations with the United States. There is certainly a consensus among the Twenty-Seven to quickly find an agreement in principle with Washington in order to avoid a damaging economic war. Should no room for an understanding be found, the member states would have to decide whether and how to respond to American unilateral choices. On this front, the debate among the Twenty-Seven is still open.

An EU spokesman explained on Friday evening: 'The EU position has been clear from the beginning: we are in favour of a negotiated solution with the US, and this remains our priority. Progress was made towards an agreement in principle during the last round of negotiations this week. After discussing the state of play of the issue with our Member States, the European Commission will return to discussions with the US again at the weekend'.

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We know the subject of the negotiations. There are currently tariffs in place that were decided at the time by the Trump administration: 50% on steel and aluminium, 25% on cars, and 10% on a whole range of other products. In the absence of agreement, the White House has threatened further tariffs of up to 50%. The latest diplomatic meetings between the Twenty-Seven have shown a growing consensus in view of a quick framework-agreement, which would put an end to the uncertainty of the last months.

According to information gathered yesterday in Brussels, the European Commission itself is pushing the Twenty-Seven to accept a quick deal (which would then have to be negotiated in detail). However, a diplomat noted yesterday: 'There is still too much confusion about the terms' of a possible compromise. Moreover, he added, 'an agreement in principle might not suspend the heavy sectoral tariffs, pending one or more final agreements. And that would be a problem'.

On Wednesday 9 July, the grace period with which US President Donald Trump suspended the so-called reciprocal or horizontal tariffs, announced in April, for 90 days will expire. In recent days, the White House has heralded a series of trade measures against a dozen partners with whom negotiations are slow. Threat for the future, in case of no agreement, or blackmail for the present, during the negotiations? Probably both.

The Twenty-Seven are on edge, waiting for the next signals from the European Commission as to the outcome of the negotiations this weekend. Should the negotiations fail or be unsatisfactory, the EU will have to decide whether and how to take reprisals. There are two packages of measures on the table. The first, prepared in response to tariffs on steel and aluminium, has been suspended to meet the Trump administration during the negotiations.

The second package is to serve as a retaliation to reciprocal or horizontal tariffs. The trade measures, worth around EUR 90 billion, have not yet been officially approved by the governments. The issue is sensitive among the Twenty-Seven, who will have to decide whether and how to adopt them if the negotiations fail. Moreover, diplomats confirmed yesterday that the debate between the member states on possible sanctions in the field of digital services has not yet been seriously started, so controversial is it.

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