Hugo Boss: revenue down 5 per cent. 2026 profit forecasts revised downwards
Third-quarter figures were below expectations, but the recovery targets remain unchanged. The Frasers Group now holds a 50 per cent stake in the German company
CEO Daniel Grieder reiterated this with Teutonic emphasis: the objectives of the ‘Claim 5 Touchdown’ plan, presented by the German firm Hugo Boss in December 2025, remain unchanged and will take the company and its brands ‘into a new phase’. A phase of revival and growth, one assumes, but the figures for the first nine months are not positive and have prompted Grieder himself to revise his profit forecasts for the full financial year.
In the third quarter, revenue fell by 5 per cent at constant exchange rates (-7 per cent at current exchange rates) to €946 million; all profitability metrics were down: EBIT stood at 81 million (-15%), whilst EBITDA and net profit, at 67 and 49 million respectively, were down 19% on 2025. Hence the revision: 2026 EBITDA is expected to stand at between 250 and 300 million, lower than the previous estimate of 350 million as the maximum target.
The figures for the July–September period come a week after the completion of Hugo Boss’s takeover by the British retailer Frasers Group, which announced on 23 October that it had exceeded the 50 per cent threshold in the German company’s share capital, reaching 50.08 per cent, following a challenging process since the launch of the takeover bid last June. Analysts immediately assessed the impact of the profit warning on Frasers: according to RBC Capital Markets, “it is a negative sign for Hugo Boss’s majority shareholder. We expect a recovery from 2027 onwards, but visibility remains poor, particularly in light of the current geopolitical uncertainties”.
The Claim 5 Touchdown plan is based on three pillars – brand strength, distribution and operational efficiency – and forecasts a return to revenue and profit growth in 2027, whilst viewing 2026 as ‘a year of realignment’ (in the words of the CEO eleven months ago). In the meantime, however, the US stance on tariffs has not softened, and the war in Iran and street protests in Europe have added to the challenges (the EMEA region accounts for almost two-thirds of third-quarter revenue).
However, not all the figures in the fashion sector are negative: on Tuesday, another German company, the e-commerce firm Zalando, exceeded expectations, with third-quarter revenue of 3.17 billion (+5.1 per cent), but its share price closed down 6.3 per cent. Hugo Boss, which had gained 7 per cent since the start of the year, lost ‘only’ 1.13 per cent yesterday. The mysteries of Frankfurt.
