Reportage

Hungary, snapshots from polling station 49 in Budapest: turnout is at an all-time high

In the capital's suburbs, those who vote Tisza are optimistic. But for a certain victory Magyar needs a lead of at least five points over Orban

by Micaela Cappellini

Foto di Micaela Cappellini / Il Sole 24 Ore

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

FROM OUR SENDER - On Ifjumunkas Street in Budapest, the primary school named after Hungarian writer Dezso Kosztolanyi now houses polling stations 49 and 48. Here, the splendid Art Nouveau buildings of the city centre give way to the more anonymous slums of the suburbs, but we are still just a stone's throw from the Mvm Dome, the sports hall where last Tuesday JD Vance, Vice-President of the United States, held his rally alongside his 'friend' Viktor Orban, to support his re-election bid.

At 9am the bustle of voters in Ifjumunkas Street is brisk, the sunny morning helps. According to data from the Hungarian National Election Office, at 11am the turnout has already reached an all-time high: for the challenge between Viktor Orban and Peter Magyar 37.98% of voters have already voted. In the previous parliamentary elections in 2022, the voter turnout at the same time was 25.77%. And the high turnout, goes the experts' mantra, is pulling the wool over Tisza's challengers' eyes.

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Istvan Pintye is 47 years old and is at seat 48 as a list representative of Peter Magyar's movement. Istvan is an activist from the first hour of the Tisza Islands, the movement's grassroots cells that sprung up on Facebook to support the candidacy of Orban's rival: 'I am optimistic,' he says, 'this is a district that stands with Tisza. I joined the movement because I no longer want to live in a country where in order to have a licence or certain services you have to belong to Fidesz, the premier's party'.

Outside the polling station, the younger ones talk happily, are not afraid to say they voted for Magyar because they want change, and assure that Gen Z will vote en masse. It is easy to see who, coming out of the polling station, has instead just voted for Orban: they are the ones who prefer not to say anything and go straight. Even the Fidesz list representatives are tight-lipped.

Ungheria: al voto oltre 8 milioni di elettori

Photogallery27 foto

With polls still giving the challenger Magyar the lead by more than 12-13 points, not even at Orban's headquarters feel like overturning the numbers.

There are rumours in the party corridors that Fidesz is 3% down. But the Hungarian electoral system is a complicated mechanism. Prime Minister Orban has tweaked it several times over the years, to better tailor it to himself: the constituency map and the super-majority prize could hold surprises. Let's say that to be safe tonight at seven o'clock, when the polls close, Magyar must have put a lead of at least five percentage points over Fidesz in his pocket. Otherwise, government challenges and the risk of fraud could be just around the corner.

Orban attacca Bruxelles: "Ha deciso di andare in guerra"

At polling station 49 in the morning, theOce observers also arrived. Some voters see them and thank them, feeling more protected. Around the country there are about a hundred in all, eight of them from Italia. But the ranks of those who in various capacities have arrived from abroad to supervise the elections is much larger and runs to 900. Even the international of the sovereignist right, Cpac, has sent its own: exponents of the Maga, the European Patriots and the League, whose leader Salvini is a well-known Orban supporter. On Friday, two days before the vote, the Hungarian premier cried conspiracy, accusing the opposition of preparing fraud. But the most worried about improper intervention in the ballot box are naturally Tisza's challengers, who have opened an ad hoc portal, Tisztavalasztas.hu, to collect complaints.

"Here the situation seems calm," says the PD Alessandro Alfieri senator, who together with Avs Giuseppe De Cristofaro and the Dem deputy Vincenzo Amendola makes up the OSCE delegation to the seat in Via Ifjumunkas.

But it is the polling stations in the smaller villages, in the more peripheral areas of Hungary, that observers are most worried about. Those where Tisza is really playing the game.

'A Peter Magyar victory would change the balance in the EU,' Alfieri explains, 'because it would re-establish Hungary's ties with Europe. It would also change Atlantic relations, because it would break Budapest's relations with the Magyars and with Trump'.

The large turnout in these hours is all on Magyar's side: 'If the participation of young Hungarians is high, they will make the difference,' says De Cristofaro, 'just as happened with the last referendum in Italia.

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