Feature

Hungary: Snapshots from polling station 49 in Budapest: turnout is at an all-time high

On the outskirts of the capital, those voting for Tisza are optimistic. But to secure a certain victory, Magyar must build up a lead of at least 5 points over Orban

Foto di Micaela Cappellini / Il Sole 24 Ore

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT – On Via Ifjumunkas, in Budapest, the primary school named after the Hungarian writer Dezső Kosztolányi is today home to polling stations 49 and 48. Here, the splendid Art Nouveau buildings of the city centre give way to the more nondescript tower blocks of the suburbs, but we are still just a stone’s throw from the MVM Dome, the sports arena where, last Tuesday, the US Vice-President JD Vance held his rally alongside his ‘friend’ Viktor Orbán, to campaign for his re-election.

At nine o’clock in the morning, the hustle and bustle of voters on Via Ifjumunkas is brisk, helped by the sunny morning. According to figures from the Hungarian National Electoral Office, by 11 am voter turnout had already reached an all-time high: for the contest between Viktor Orban and Peter Magyar, 37.98 per cent of voters have already cast their ballots. In the previous parliamentary elections in 2022, at the same time, the turnout stood at 25.77 per cent. And high turnout, as the experts’ mantra goes, gives Tisza’s challengers a boost.

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István Pintye is 47 years old and is standing at polling station 48 as a list candidate for Peter Magyar’s movement. István is one of the founding activists of the Tisza Islands, the grassroots cells of the movement set up on Facebook to support the candidacy of Orbán’s rival: “I’m optimistic,” he says. “This is a neighbourhood that supports Tisza. I joined the movement because I no longer want to live in a country where, to obtain a licence or certain services, you have to be a member of Fidesz, the Prime Minister’s party.”

Outside the polling station, the younger voters are happy to speak out; they’re not afraid to say they’ve voted for Magyar because they want change, and they’re confident that Gen Z will turn out in droves. It’s easy to tell who, as they leave the polling station, has just voted for Orbán: they’re the ones who prefer to say nothing and just carry on. Even the Fidesz list representatives are keeping their lips sealed.

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Photogallery27 foto

Given with the polls still showing challenger Magyar leading by more than 12–13 points, not even at Orbán’s headquarters do they feel confident of turning the tables.

Rumour has it in party circles that Fidesz is trailing by 3 per cent. But the Hungarian electoral system is a complicated mechanism. Prime Minister Orbán has tweaked it on several occasions over the years to tailor it more closely to his needs: the constituency map and the ‘super-majority bonus’ could hold some surprises. Let’s just say that, to be on the safe side, by 7 pm tonight, when the polls close, Magyar must have secured a lead of at least 5 percentage points over Fidesz. Otherwise, the government’s objections and the risk of electoral fraud could be just around the corner.

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At polling station 49, the following also arrived this morning: OSCE observers also arrived this morning. Some voters spot them and thank them, feeling more protected. Across the country there are around a hundred in total, eight of whom are from Italia. But the number of people who have come from abroad in various capacities to monitor the elections is much larger, numbering close to 900. Even the international organisation of the sovereignist right, the CPAC, has sent its own representatives: members of MAGA, the European Patriots and the League, whose leader Salvini is a well-known supporter of Orbán. On Friday, two days before the vote, the Hungarian Prime Minister cried foul, accusing the opposition of plotting electoral fraud. But those most concerned about electoral malpractice are, naturally, Tisza’s challengers, who have set up a dedicated website, Tisztavalasztas.hu, to collect reports of irregularities.

“The situation here seems calm,” says PD Senator Alessandro Alfieri, who, together with AVS Senator Giuseppe De Cristofaro and PD MP Vincenzo Amendola, forms the OSCE delegation at the polling station in Via Ifjumunkas.

But it is the constituencies in the smallest villages, in the most remote parts of Hungary, that are causing observers the greatest concern. These are the places where Tisza is really fighting his battle.

“A victory for Peter Magyar would shift the balance of power within the EU,” explains Alfieri, “because it would re-establish Hungary’s ties with Europe. It would also change transatlantic relations, as it would sever Budapest’s ties with the MAGYAR and with Trump.”

The high turnout currently being recorded is entirely in Magyar’s favour: ‘If turnout among young Hungarians is high, they will be the ones to make the difference,’ says De Cristofaro, ‘just as happened with the last referendum in Italia.’

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