Sixth-generation fighter, over 4,000 engineers risk being moved to other projects
The UK has until 30 June to approve the £6 billion Defense Investment Plan. If this does not happen, the risk is that we will move towards fragmentation at the management level, which currently also involves Italia and Japan
by Andrea Carli
Key points
The sixth-generation fighter project - codenamed 'Gcap' - which currently involves Italia, the UK and Japan, could see substantial news in the coming days. June is shaping up to be a decisive month. The Gcap programme, launched in 2022 and aiming for the entry into service of the new combat aircraft, with pilot on board, by 2035, has entered a phase of financial vulnerability.
London eyes
The focus is on London. Indeed, the UK has until 30 June to approve the Defense Investment Plan (GBP 6 billion), a programme prepared in February by the British Treasury. If this does not happen, and the green light does not come in this timeframe, the risk is that we will move towards a fragmentation of the programme.
The scenario
In particular, Japan could consider leaving the consortium, and the sixth-generation fighter market would risk becoming a monopoly of the US F-47. Poland and India have already expressed interest in joining GCAP as a 'lifeline'. The Germany could enter if the break with France over the FCAS - the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System is currently at a standstill due to unresolved industrial conflicts between Airbus Defence and Dassault - becomes final. The involvement of new countries in the project would however imply a restyling of the trilateral governance, with a reduction in Italia's workshare and a possible loss of Leonardo's technical leadership.
Italia and Japan would be forced to open an emergency bilateral consultation to assess options without the UK as a leading industrial nation.
Italy's moves
In all this, Italy's Ministry of Defence is called upon to maintain weekly contacts with that of the United Kingdom and the Italian embassy in Tokyo. The aim is to prepare by the end of the month a written proposal with cross-guarantees to be presented at the NATO summit in Ankara, scheduled for 5 and 6 July. This would be a 'parachute' in case the green light from the British parliament should slip. The Italia government has already put about EUR 8.7 billion on the table to finance the preliminary design and development phases. Any additional resources will have to get the green light from parliament, in a context in which the country has not emerged from the excessive deficit procedure, and in which the government is negotiating with the European Commission to extend the National Escape Clause to energy spending. The war in the Middle East, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted global supplies of energy and raw materials, weakened growth prospects, and driven up energy prices and inflation. The European National Escape Clause already provided for defence spending could allow Italia to exclude funding for GCAP from the deficit calculation.
